Torrellano v Soneja prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:09

Torrellano 2–0 Soneja TORRELLANO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Torrellano win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.505

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torrellano win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Torrellano 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
1′KICK-OFF Torrellano v Soneja
15′Little has changed for our model: Torrellano 42% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–31–29
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Torrellano 1–0 Soneja
22′Torrellano find the net on 19′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Torrellano win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Torrellano win: 42% at kick-off, 40% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Torrellano win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Torrellano win: 42% at kick-off, 40% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Torrellano win: 42% at kick-off, 40% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Torrellano win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Torrellano win: 42% at kick-off, 40% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Torrellano win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
27′Torrellano find the net on 19′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–8
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Torrellano win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Torrellano win: 42% at kick-off, 40% now
28′Torrellano find the net on 19′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–8
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Torrellano win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
33′We said Torrellano at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–20–7
40′We said Torrellano at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–6
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Torrellano win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
45′HALF-TIME Torrellano 1–0 Soneja
45′⚽ GOAL · 19' Torrellano 1–0 Soneja
46′SECOND HALF Torrellano 1–0 Soneja
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Torrellano 2–0 Soneja
90′🟥 RED CARD · 96' Soneja
FTFULL TIME Torrellano 2–0 Soneja
FTTorrellano 2–0 Soneja · Torrellano win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Torrellano win42%

Draw28%

Soneja win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Torrellano

Soneja

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Soneja	5	−4	4
18	Torrellano	5	−7	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torrellano winPublished 11 Oct 10:36

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Torrellano a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torrellano win	42%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Soneja win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Torrellano or draw	70%	–	–
Torrellano clean sheet	36%	–	–
Soneja clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 10.1 10.1 5.3 1 12.4 12.8 6.7 2.4 2 8.0 8.2 4.3 3 3.5 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Torrellano down, Soneja across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,556 Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.17 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Torrellano at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Soneja away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Torrellano, 1.05 for Soneja. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TOR 0–1 SON · SON 1–0 TOR · TOR 1–1 SON · SON 1–1 TOR

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

TORRELLANO

LLLLLD0–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–1

SONEJA

WLDWLL5–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Villarreal III	6	+6	15
2	Hércules II	6	+4	13
3	Vall de Uxó	5	+6	11
4	Levante II	5	+6	10
5	Torrent	6	+3	10
6	Crevillente	5	+2	9
7	Roda	6	+2	9
8	Eldense B	5	+2	8
9	Acero	6	+1	7
10	Saguntino	5	0	7
11	Ontinyent 1931	6	−1	6
12	SC Torrevieja	5	−3	6
13	Jove Español	6	−4	6
14	Buñol	6	−5	5
15	Atzeneta	6	−2	4
16	Soneja	5	−4	4
17	Utiel	6	−6	3
18	Torrellano	5	−7	1