Ontinyent 1931 v Utiel prediction · Tercera División RFEF

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Ontinyent 1931 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ontinyent 1931 48%, draw 29%, Utiel 23%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Ontinyent 1931 v UtielBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Ontinyent 1931 win48%

Draw29%

Utiel win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ontinyent 1931

Utiel

8Days since last match9

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

Last match: 9 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Ontinyent 1931	6	−1	6
18	Utiel	6	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ontinyent 1931 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Ontinyent 1931 a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ontinyent 1931 v Utiel~~1.31 – 0.80

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~12 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ontinyent 1931 win	48%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Utiel win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Ontinyent 1931 or draw	77%	–	–
Ontinyent 1931 clean sheet	45%	–	–
Utiel clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.6%

0123450 12.5 9.7 4.0 1 15.6 12.5 5.0 2 10.2 8.1 3.3 3 4.6 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ontinyent 1931 down, Utiel across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,562 Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ontinyent 1931 at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Utiel away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Ontinyent 1931, 0.80 for Utiel. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~UTI 1–2 ONT · ONT 0–0 UTI · UTI 0–1 ONT · ONT 2–0 UTI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 6 Sept

ONTINYENT 1931

LWLWLL1–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–3

UTIEL

DDLDLL0–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Villarreal III	7	+7	18
2	Levante II	6	+9	13
3	Vall de Uxó	6	+6	12
4	Hércules II	6	+3	11
5	Torrent	6	+3	10
6	Eldense B	7	+2	10
7	Roda	6	+2	9
8	Crevillente	6	+1	9
9	Acero	7	+1	8
10	Saguntino	6	0	8
11	SC Torrevieja	7	−6	7
12	Ontinyent 1931	6	−1	6
13	Jove Español	6	−4	6
14	Atzeneta	6	−1	5
15	Buñol	6	−5	5
16	Torrellano	6	−5	4
17	Soneja	6	−6	4
18	Utiel	6	−6	3