Levante II v Crevillente prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 20:31

Levante II 0–0 Crevillente LEVANTE II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Levante II win~~61%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.004

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.964

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Levante II win at 61%.
1′Much as we predicted: Levante II was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–17
1′KICK-OFF Levante II v Crevillente
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Levante II win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
40′We said Levante II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–34–17
45′HALF-TIME Levante II 0–0 Crevillente
46′SECOND HALF Levante II 0–0 Crevillente
50′We said Levante II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–40–16
55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 41–43–16
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Levante II win: 61% at kick-off, 41% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Levante II win 42%)
58′We said Levante II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–46–15
65′We said Levante II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–53–14
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Levante II win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
70′We said Levante II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–59–12
75′We said Levante II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–66–10
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Levante II win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
79′We said Levante II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–73–8
82′We said Levante II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–79–6
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Levante II win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
86′We said Levante II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–4
92′We said Levante II at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
FTFULL TIME Levante II 0–0 Crevillente
FTLevante II 0–0 Crevillente · Levante II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Levante II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Levante II 61%, draw 22%, Crevillente 17%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Levante II v CrevillenteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Levante II win61%

Draw22%

Crevillente win17%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 18:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Levante II

Crevillente

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Levante II	6	+9	13
8	Crevillente	6	+1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · levante ii winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off

61% The market59%

Us61%

~~Market~~59%

We make Levante II a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Levante II v Crevillente~~1.89 – 0.87

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 9~~2 v 8

~~The market · Levante II win~~59% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Levante II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Levante II win	61%	59%	+2
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Crevillente win	17%	17%	0
Over 2.5 goals	52%	52%	0
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	75%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	32%	−2
Levante II or draw	83%	83%	0
Levante II clean sheet	42%	–	–
Crevillente clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.0%

0123450 6.8 5.7 2.5 1 12.0 10.4 4.5 2 11.1 9.5 4.1 3 7.0 5.9 2.6 4 3.4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Levante II down, Crevillente across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,562 Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Levante II at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Crevillente away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Levante II, 0.87 for Crevillente. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LEV 4–1 CRE · CRE 0–1 LEV · LEV 2–0 CRE · CRE 0–1 LEV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 5 Sept

LEVANTE II

LDWWWW1–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 4–1

CREVILLENTE

WDDDWL1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Villarreal III	7	+7	18
2	Levante II	6	+9	13
3	Vall de Uxó	6	+6	12
4	Hércules II	6	+3	11
5	Torrent	6	+3	10
6	Eldense B	7	+2	10
7	Roda	6	+2	9
8	Crevillente	6	+1	9
9	Acero	7	+1	8
10	Saguntino	6	0	8
11	SC Torrevieja	7	−6	7
12	Ontinyent 1931	6	−1	6
13	Jove Español	6	−4	6
14	Atzeneta	6	−1	5
15	Buñol	6	−5	5
16	Torrellano	6	−5	4
17	Soneja	6	−6	4
18	Utiel	6	−6	3