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Jove Español v Roda

Jove Español

1–1Full time

Roda

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Jove Español 1–1 Roda JOVE ESPAÑOL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Jove Español win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.774

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jove Español win at 37%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Jove Español 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–34
2′KICK-OFF Jove Español v Roda
4′⚽ GOAL · 6' Jove Español 0–0 Roda
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Jove Español 1–0 Roda
24′A goal for Jove Español on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–21–10
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Jove Español win: 37% at kick-off, 68% now
45′HALF-TIME Jove Español 1–0 Roda
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Jove Español win: 37% at kick-off, 68% now
46′SECOND HALF Jove Español 1–0 Roda
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Jove Español 1–1 Roda
FTFULL TIME Jove Español 1–1 Roda
FTJove Español 1–1 Roda · Jove Español win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Jove Español win37%

Draw28%

Roda win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jove español winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Jove Español a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jove Español win	37%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Roda win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Jove Español or draw	66%	–	–
Jove Español clean sheet	33%	–	–
Roda clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.3 11.2 6.3 2.4 1 11.8 13.0 7.2 2.8 2 7.0 7.6 4.3 3 2.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jove Español down, Roda across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,553 Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.7% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jove Español at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Roda away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Jove Español, 1.12 for Roda. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JOV 2–1 ROD · ROD 0–1 JOV · ROD 1–2 JOV · JOV 2–1 ROD

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

JOVE ESPAÑOL

LLDLDW2–5 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

RODA

LWLDDW0–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Villarreal III	6	+6	15
2	Hércules II	6	+4	13
3	Vall de Uxó	5	+6	11
4	Levante II	5	+6	10
5	Torrent	6	+3	10
6	Roda	5	+2	8
7	Eldense B	5	+2	8
8	Saguntino	5	0	7
9	Crevillente	4	+1	6
10	Acero	5	+1	6
11	Ontinyent 1931	5	0	6
12	SC Torrevieja	5	−3	6
13	Jove Español	5	−4	5
14	Buñol	6	−5	5
15	Soneja	5	−4	4
16	Atzeneta	5	−2	3
17	Utiel	6	−6	3
18	Torrellano	5	−7	1