Hércules II v Vall de Uxó prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Hércules II 0–1 Vall de Uxó VALL DE UXÓ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vall de Uxó win~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.635

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vall de Uxó win at 35%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vall de Uxó was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 34–31–35
1′KICK-OFF Hércules II v Vall de Uxó
6′Vall de Uxó score on 6′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–67
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Hércules II 0–1 Vall de Uxó
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Vall de Uxó win: 35% at kick-off, 67% now
7′We published Vall de Uxó at 35%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 12–21–67
16′GOAL DISALLOWED · 16' Vall de Uxó
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Vall de Uxó win: 35% at kick-off, 33% now
17′Vall de Uxó score on 16′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–21–68
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Hércules II 0–1 Vall de Uxó
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Vall de Uxó win: 35% at kick-off, 68% now
27′We published Vall de Uxó at 35%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 9–21–70
45′HALF-TIME Hércules II 0–1 Vall de Uxó
46′SECOND HALF Hércules II 0–1 Vall de Uxó
49′We published Vall de Uxó at 35%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Vall de Uxó win: 35% at kick-off, 75% now
62′We published Vall de Uxó at 35%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
72′We published Vall de Uxó at 35%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–14–85
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Vall de Uxó win: 35% at kick-off, 85% now
79′We published Vall de Uxó at 35%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
86′We published Vall de Uxó at 35%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Vall de Uxó win: 35% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME Hércules II 0–1 Vall de Uxó
FTHércules II 0–1 Vall de Uxó · Vall de Uxó win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Vall de Uxó just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hércules II 34%, draw 31%, Vall de Uxó 35%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Hércules II v Vall de UxóBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hércules II win34%

Draw31%

Vall de Uxó win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hércules II

Vall de Uxó

15Days since last match13

Last match: 9 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Vall de Uxó	6	+6	12
4	Hércules II	6	+3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vall de uxó winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

35% The market–

Us35%

We make Vall de Uxó a 35% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hércules II v Vall de Uxó~~1.00 – 1.01

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 12~~4 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hércules II win	34%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Vall de Uxó win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Hércules II or draw	65%	–	–
Hércules II clean sheet	37%	–	–
Vall de Uxó clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 13.9%

0123450 13.9 13.4 6.9 2.4 1 13.2 13.4 6.7 2.3 2 6.6 6.6 3.3 3 2.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hércules II down, Vall de Uxó across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,563 Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hércules II at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Vall de Uxó away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Hércules II, 1.01 for Vall de Uxó. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HER 0–1 VAL · VAL 1–1 HER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 5 Sept

HÉRCULES II

LDWWWW1–2 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

VALL DE UXÓ

DWWWDD0–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Villarreal III	7	+7	18
2	Levante II	7	+9	14
3	Vall de Uxó	6	+6	12
4	Hércules II	6	+3	11
5	Torrent	6	+3	10
6	Eldense B	7	+2	10
7	Crevillente	7	+1	10
8	Roda	6	+2	9
9	Acero	7	+1	8
10	Saguntino	6	0	8
11	SC Torrevieja	7	−6	7
12	Ontinyent 1931	6	−1	6
13	Jove Español	6	−4	6
14	Atzeneta	6	−1	5
15	Buñol	6	−5	5
16	Torrellano	6	−5	4
17	Soneja	6	−6	4
18	Utiel	6	−6	3