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Eldense B v Soneja

Eldense B

2–3Full time

Soneja

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Eldense B 2–3 Soneja ELDENSE B WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Eldense B win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.883

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Eldense B win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Eldense B was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–24
1′KICK-OFF Eldense B v Soneja
15′Eldense B find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–7
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Eldense B 1–0 Soneja
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Eldense B win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
16′We published Eldense B at 47%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–17–7
22′A goal for Soneja on 22′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 43–34–23
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Eldense B 1–1 Soneja
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Eldense B win: 47% at kick-off, 43% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Eldense B win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Eldense B win 39%)
45′HALF-TIME Eldense B 1–1 Soneja
46′We said Eldense B at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–45–20
46′SECOND HALF Eldense B 1–1 Soneja
48′We said Eldense B at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–46–20
52′Soneja score on 52′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 8–24–67
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Eldense B 1–2 Soneja
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Eldense B win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Soneja win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 48%)
53′We said Eldense B at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–2 · 8–24–68
53′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 8–24–68
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Eldense B win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
65′We said Eldense B at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
67′Eldense B find the net on 66′. 2–2. 2–2 · 24–62–14
67′We said Eldense B at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–62–14
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Eldense B 2–2 Soneja
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Eldense B win: 47% at kick-off, 24% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Soneja win 75%)
68′4 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 23–63–14
73′We said Eldense B at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–69–12
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Eldense B win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
79′We said Eldense B at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–78–8
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Eldense B win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
94′A goal for Soneja on 90′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–1–99
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Eldense B 2–3 Soneja
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Soneja win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 98%)
95′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Eldense B 2–3 Soneja
FTEldense B 2–3 Soneja · Eldense B win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Eldense B are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Eldense B 47%, draw 28%, Soneja 24%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Eldense B v SonejaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Eldense B win47%

Draw28%

Soneja win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eldense B

Soneja

7Days since last match13

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Eldense B	7	+2	10
17	Soneja	6	−6	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · eldense b winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Eldense B a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Eldense B v Soneja~~1.33 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 4~~6 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eldense B win	47%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Soneja win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Eldense B or draw	76%	–	–
Eldense B clean sheet	43%	–	–
Soneja clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 11.8 9.6 4.2 1 14.8 12.6 5.3 2 9.8 8.2 3.5 3 4.4 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eldense B down, Soneja across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,563 Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Eldense B at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Soneja away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Eldense B, 0.85 for Soneja. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 6 Sept

ELDENSE B

DDWLDD0–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

SONEJA

LDWLLL0–3 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Villarreal III	7	+7	18
2	Levante II	7	+9	14
3	Vall de Uxó	6	+6	12
4	Hércules II	6	+3	11
5	Torrent	6	+3	10
6	Eldense B	7	+2	10
7	Crevillente	7	+1	10
8	Roda	6	+2	9
9	Acero	7	+1	8
10	Saguntino	6	0	8
11	SC Torrevieja	7	−6	7
12	Ontinyent 1931	6	−1	6
13	Jove Español	6	−4	6
14	Atzeneta	6	−1	5
15	Buñol	6	−5	5
16	Torrellano	6	−5	4
17	Soneja	6	−6	4
18	Utiel	6	−6	3