Crevillente v Buñol prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CrevillenteDrawBuñol

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Crevillente 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Crevillente are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Crevillente 48%, draw 26%, Buñol 26%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Crevillente v BuñolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Crevillente win48%

Draw26%

Buñol win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Crevillente

Buñol

5Days since last match16

Last match: 20 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

Last match: 9 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Crevillente	7	+1	10
16	Buñol	6	−5	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · crevillente winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Crevillente a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Crevillente v Buñol~~1.48 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 5~~6 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Crevillente win	48%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Buñol win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Crevillente or draw	74%	–	–
Crevillente clean sheet	37%	–	–
Buñol clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.7 8.4 4.3 1 12.1 12.3 6.2 2.1 2 9.0 8.9 4.5 3 4.5 4.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Crevillente down, Buñol across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,567 Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Crevillente at home: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Buñol away: 0.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Crevillente, 1.01 for Buñol. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BUN 0–4 CRE · CRE 0–1 BUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 5 Sept

CREVILLENTE

DDDWLD2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

BUÑOL

WDDLLL2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Villarreal III	7	+7	18
2	Levante II	8	+11	17
3	Vall de Uxó	7	+7	15
4	Hércules II	7	+2	11
5	Torrent	6	+3	10
6	Crevillente	7	+1	10
7	Eldense B	8	+1	10
8	Roda	7	+1	9
9	Acero	7	+1	8
10	Saguntino	6	0	8
11	Atzeneta	7	0	8
12	Soneja	7	−5	7
13	SC Torrevieja	7	−6	7
14	Ontinyent 1931	6	−1	6
15	Jove Español	7	−6	6
16	Buñol	6	−5	5
17	Torrellano	6	−5	4
18	Utiel	6	−6	3