Atzeneta v Roda prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Atzeneta 2–1 Roda ATZENETA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atzeneta win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.568

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atzeneta win at 38%.
1′KICK-OFF Atzeneta v Roda
2′Much as we predicted: Atzeneta was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–32–30
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Atzeneta win 36%)
34′A goal for Atzeneta on 33′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–7
34′We published Atzeneta at 38%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–20–7
34′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 74–20–7
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Atzeneta 1–0 Roda
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Atzeneta win: 38% at kick-off, 74% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Atzeneta win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 41%)
38′We published Atzeneta at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
45′Roda score on 44′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 29–47–24
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Atzeneta 1–1 Roda
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Atzeneta win: 38% at kick-off, 29% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Atzeneta win 76%)
45′HALF-TIME Atzeneta 1–1 Roda
46′SECOND HALF Atzeneta 1–1 Roda
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Atzeneta win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
53′We said Atzeneta at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–52–22
58′We said Atzeneta at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–56–20
67′We said Atzeneta at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–64–16
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Atzeneta win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
75′A red card for Atzeneta on 75′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 14–74–12
75′We said Atzeneta at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
75′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Atzeneta
78′PENALTY MISSED · 77' Roda
79′Atzeneta find the net on 79′. 2–1. 2–1 · 91–9–1
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Atzeneta 2–1 Roda
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Atzeneta win: 38% at kick-off, 91% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Atzeneta win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 80%)
80′We published Atzeneta at 38%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–1 · 91–8–0
80′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 91–8–0
84′We published Atzeneta at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Atzeneta win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Atzeneta 2–1 Roda
FTAtzeneta 2–1 Roda · Atzeneta win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atzeneta are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atzeneta 38%, draw 31%, Roda 30%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Atzeneta v RodaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Atzeneta win38%

Draw31%

Roda win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atzeneta

Roda

14Days since last match14

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Roda	6	+2	9
14	Atzeneta	6	−1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atzeneta winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Atzeneta a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atzeneta v Roda~~1.07 – 0.91

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 9~~14 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atzeneta win	38%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Roda win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Atzeneta or draw	70%	–	–
Atzeneta clean sheet	41%	–	–
Roda clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 14.3 12.4 5.8 1 14.6 13.3 6.0 2 7.8 7.0 3.2 3 2.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atzeneta down, Roda across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,563 Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atzeneta at home: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Roda away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Atzeneta, 0.91 for Roda. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ATZ 1–1 ROD · ROD 1–2 ATZ · ATZ 1–2 ROD · ROD 1–1 ATZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 5 Sept

ATZENETA

LDDLDD1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

RODA

WLDDWD2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Villarreal III	7	+7	18
2	Levante II	7	+9	14
3	Vall de Uxó	6	+6	12
4	Hércules II	6	+3	11
5	Torrent	6	+3	10
6	Eldense B	7	+2	10
7	Crevillente	7	+1	10
8	Roda	6	+2	9
9	Acero	7	+1	8
10	Saguntino	6	0	8
11	SC Torrevieja	7	−6	7
12	Ontinyent 1931	6	−1	6
13	Jove Español	6	−4	6
14	Atzeneta	6	−1	5
15	Buñol	6	−5	5
16	Torrellano	6	−5	4
17	Soneja	6	−6	4
18	Utiel	6	−6	3