Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 › Atzeneta v Acero

Atzeneta v Acero

Atzeneta

1–1Full time

Acero

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Atzeneta 1–1 Acero ATZENETA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atzeneta win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.759

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atzeneta win at 44%.
2′KICK-OFF Atzeneta v Acero
4′Much as we predicted: Atzeneta was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–31–26
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Atzeneta 0–1 Acero
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Atzeneta 1–1 Acero
FTFULL TIME Atzeneta 1–1 Acero
FTAtzeneta 1–1 Acero · Atzeneta win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Atzeneta win44%

Draw30%

Acero win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atzeneta winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Atzeneta a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atzeneta win	44%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Acero win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Atzeneta or draw	74%	–	–
Atzeneta clean sheet	43%	–	–
Acero clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.3%

0123450 13.3 11.0 4.7 1 15.3 12.7 5.4 2 9.2 7.6 3.2 3 3.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atzeneta down, Acero across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,553 Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.7% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atzeneta at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Acero away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Atzeneta, 0.85 for Acero. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ACE 0–1 ATZ · ATZ 4–1 ACE · ACE 0–1 ATZ · ATZ 1–1 ACE

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

ATZENETA

WLDDLD1–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

ACERO

LLDWDD2–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Villarreal III	6	+6	15
2	Hércules II	6	+4	13
3	Vall de Uxó	5	+6	11
4	Levante II	5	+6	10
5	Torrent	6	+3	10
6	Roda	5	+2	8
7	Eldense B	5	+2	8
8	Saguntino	5	0	7
9	Crevillente	4	+1	6
10	Acero	5	+1	6
11	Ontinyent 1931	5	0	6
12	SC Torrevieja	5	−3	6
13	Jove Español	5	−4	5
14	Buñol	6	−5	5
15	Soneja	5	−4	4
16	Atzeneta	5	−2	3
17	Utiel	6	−6	3
18	Torrellano	5	−7	1