Acero v Eldense B prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Acero 1–1 Eldense B ACERO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Acero win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.733

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Acero win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Acero 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–30–33
1′KICK-OFF Acero v Eldense B
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Acero win 32%)
35′A goal for Eldense B on 35′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–22–69
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Acero 0–1 Eldense B
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Acero win: 36% at kick-off, 9% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Eldense B win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
36′We said Acero at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 9–22–69
45′HALF-TIME Acero 0–1 Eldense B
46′SECOND HALF Acero 0–1 Eldense B
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Acero win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
57′Acero are down to ten from 57′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 4–20–76
57′🟥 RED CARD · 57' Acero
58′We said Acero at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
60′Acero have ten men and Eldense B ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 4–19–77
60′🟥 RED CARD · 59' Eldense B
69′Acero score on 69′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 18–65–17
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Acero 1–1 Eldense B
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Acero win: 36% at kick-off, 18% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Eldense B win 17%)
70′We said Acero at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 17–66–16
75′We said Acero at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–73–13
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Acero win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
FTFULL TIME Acero 1–1 Eldense B
FTAcero 1–1 Eldense B · Acero win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Acero just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Acero 36%, draw 30%, Eldense B 33%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Acero v Eldense BBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Acero win36%

Draw30%

Eldense B win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Acero

Eldense B

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Eldense B	6	+2	9
10	Acero	6	+1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · acero winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Acero a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Acero v Eldense B~~1.08 – 1.02

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 9~~10 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Acero win

Published at 37%, 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Acero win	36%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Eldense B win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Acero or draw	67%	–	–
Acero clean sheet	37%	–	–
Eldense B clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 12.9 12.5 6.4 2.2 1 13.2 13.1 6.6 2.3 2 7.1 7.0 3.5 3 2.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Acero down, Eldense B across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,559 Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.4% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Acero at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Eldense B away: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Acero, 1.02 for Eldense B. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 this season · since 5 Sept

ACERO

LDWDDD0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

ELDENSE B

WDDWLD1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Villarreal III	6	+6	15
2	Levante II	6	+9	13
3	Vall de Uxó	6	+6	12
4	Hércules II	6	+3	11
5	Torrent	6	+3	10
6	Crevillente	5	+2	9
7	Roda	6	+2	9
8	Eldense B	6	+2	9
9	Saguntino	6	0	8
10	Acero	6	+1	7
11	SC Torrevieja	7	−6	7
12	Ontinyent 1931	6	−1	6
13	Jove Español	6	−4	6
14	Atzeneta	6	−1	5
15	Buñol	6	−5	5
16	Torrellano	6	−5	4
17	Soneja	6	−6	4
18	Utiel	6	−6	3