Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 › Vilanova v San Juan Atletico de Montcada

Back
Spain flag

Vilanova v San Juan Atletico de Montcada

Vilanova
2–0Full time
San Juan Atletico de Montcada

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · WED 21 OCT

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 21:30
Vilanova 2–0 San Juan Atletico de Montcada VILANOVA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Vilanova win49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.387

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Vilanova win at 49%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Vilanova 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–28–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Vilanova v San Juan Atletico de Montcada
  4. 28′Vilanova find the net on 28′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–16–6
  5. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Vilanova 1–0 San Juan Atletico de Montcada
  6. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Vilanova win: 49% at kick-off, 78% now
  7. 29′We said Vilanova at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–16–6
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 78–16–5
  9. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Vilanova win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
  10. 42′We said Vilanova at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Vilanova 1–0 San Juan Atletico de Montcada
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Vilanova 1–0 San Juan Atletico de Montcada
  13. 49′A goal for Vilanova on 49′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–0
  14. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Vilanova 2–0 San Juan Atletico de Montcada
  15. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Vilanova win: 49% at kick-off, 96% now
  16. 50′We said Vilanova at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  17. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Vilanova win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
  18. 79′We said Vilanova at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  19. FTFULL TIME Vilanova 2–0 San Juan Atletico de Montcada
  20. FTVilanova 2–0 San Juan Atletico de Montcada · Vilanova win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vilanova are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vilanova 49%, draw 28%, San Juan Atletico de Montcada 22%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Vilanova v San Juan Atletico de MontcadaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

Vilanova win49%
Draw28%
San Juan Atletico de Montcada win22%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vilanova

San Juan Atletico de Montcada

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Vilanova6+210
10San Juan Atletico de Montcada6−39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vilanova winFirst published 18 Oct 03:48 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
49% The market–
Us49%

We make Vilanova a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Vilanova v San Juan Atletico de Montcada1.44 – 0.88
Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 SeptW2 D4 L0 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 10 v 95 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 03:4821 OCT 18:43
Our probability · Vilanova win

Published at 51%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Vilanova win49%––
Draw28%––
San Juan Atletico de Montcada win22%––
Over 2.5 goals41%––
Both teams to score45%––
Over 1.5 goals68%––
Over 3.5 goals21%––
Vilanova or draw78%––
Vilanova clean sheet42%––
San Juan Atletico de Montcada clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%
0123450 10.8 8.0 3.9 1 13.4 12.9 5.4 2 10.1 8.8 3.9 3 4.9 4.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Vilanova down, San Juan Atletico de Montcada across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 Sept

VILANOVA

DWDWDD2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 0–0

SAN JUAN ATLETICO DE MONTCADA

LWLWLW0–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1L'Hospitalet7+413
2Montañesa7+412
3Grama7+711
4Badalona7+611
5Vilanova6+210
6Pobla Mafumet7+110
7Atlètic Lleida7−19
8Cerdanyola del Vallès7−19
9Martinenc7−39
10San Juan Atletico de Montcada6−39
11Tona7−39
12Europa II7+28
13Peralada7+28
14L'Escala7−18
15Mollerussa7−18
16San Cristóbal7−88
17Cornellà7−17
18Vilassar Mar7−67

The competition's standings before kick-off.