Vilanova v Grama prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 21:02

Vilanova 0–0 Grama VILANOVA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vilanova win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.747

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vilanova win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Vilanova 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–30–29
1′KICK-OFF Vilanova v Grama
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Vilanova win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Vilanova 0–0 Grama
46′SECOND HALF Vilanova 0–0 Grama
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Vilanova win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
53′We said Vilanova at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–23
64′We said Vilanova at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–19
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Vilanova win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
72′We said Vilanova at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–67–15
77′We said Vilanova at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–12
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Vilanova win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
83′We said Vilanova at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
90′We said Vilanova at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Vilanova 0–0 Grama
FTVilanova 0–0 Grama · Vilanova win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vilanova are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vilanova 41%, draw 30%, Grama 29%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Vilanova v GramaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vilanova win41%

Draw30%

Grama win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:30

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vilanova

Grama

6Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

Last match: 14 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Grama	6	+7	10
6	Vilanova	5	+2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vilanova winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:58 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Vilanova a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vilanova v Grama~~1.26 – 1.03

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~6 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vilanova win

Published at 42%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vilanova win	41%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Grama win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Vilanova or draw	71%	–	–
Vilanova clean sheet	36%	–	–
Grama clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.2 9.7 5.4 1 12.1 13.7 6.6 2.3 2 8.0 8.1 4.2 3 3.4 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vilanova down, Grama across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,488 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vilanova at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Grama away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Vilanova, 1.03 for Grama. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GRA 0–0 VIL · VIL 1–3 GRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 Sept

VILANOVA

DWDWD2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–0

GRAMA

WDLWLW2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Montañesa	6	+5	12
2	Grama	6	+7	10
3	Badalona	6	+6	10
4	L'Hospitalet	6	+3	10
5	Pobla Mafumet	6	+2	10
6	Vilanova	5	+2	9
7	Martinenc	6	+1	9
8	Europa II	6	+3	8
9	Atlètic Lleida	6	−1	8
10	Peralada	6	+2	7
11	Cornellà	6	+1	7
12	L'Escala	6	−1	7
13	Mollerussa	6	−1	7
14	San Cristóbal	6	−8	7
15	Cerdanyola del Vallès	6	−2	6
16	Tona	6	−4	6
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	−5	6
18	Vilassar Mar	6	−10	4