Tona v Europa II prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Tona 1–0 Europa II TONA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tona win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.444

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tona win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tona was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
1′KICK-OFF Tona v Europa II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Tona win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
45′HALF-TIME Tona 0–0 Europa II
46′SECOND HALF Tona 0–0 Europa II
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Tona win 35%)
51′We said Tona at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–42–23
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–45–22
60′Tona score on 60′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–17–4
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Tona 1–0 Europa II
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Tona win: 46% at kick-off, 79% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Tona win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
61′We published Tona at 46%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–4
62′We published Tona at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
73′We published Tona at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Tona win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
80′We published Tona at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
87′We published Tona at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Tona win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
92′PENALTY MISSED · 90+2' Europa II
FTFULL TIME Tona 1–0 Europa II
FTTona 1–0 Europa II · Tona win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tona are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tona 46%, draw 26%, Europa II 28%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Tona v Europa IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tona win46%

Draw26%

Europa II win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:45

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tona

Europa II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Europa II	6	+3	8
16	Tona	6	−4	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tona winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Tona a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tona v Europa II~~1.56 – 1.17

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 8~~16 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tona win	46%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Europa II win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Tona or draw	72%	–	–
Tona clean sheet	31%	–	–
Europa II clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.4 7.0 4.5 1 9.5 12.5 6.9 2.7 2 7.9 9.1 5.3 2.1 3 4.1 4.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tona down, Europa II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,489 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tona at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Europa II away: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Tona, 1.17 for Europa II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TON 1–1 EUR · EUR 0–0 TON · EUR 0–1 TON · TON 2–2 EUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 Sept

TONA

LWLLLW0–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–0

EUROPA II

DLDWWL0–0 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 6–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Montañesa	6	+5	12
2	Grama	7	+7	11
3	Badalona	6	+6	10
4	L'Hospitalet	6	+3	10
5	Pobla Mafumet	6	+2	10
6	Vilanova	6	+2	10
7	Martinenc	6	+1	9
8	Europa II	6	+3	8
9	Atlètic Lleida	6	−1	8
10	Peralada	6	+2	7
11	Cornellà	6	+1	7
12	L'Escala	6	−1	7
13	Mollerussa	6	−1	7
14	San Cristóbal	6	−8	7
15	Cerdanyola del Vallès	6	−2	6
16	Tona	6	−4	6
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	−5	6
18	Vilassar Mar	6	−10	4