San Juan Atletico de Montcada v L'Hospitalet prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

San Juan Atletico de MontcadaDrawL'Hospitalet

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · L'Hospitalet 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

L'Hospitalet are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Juan Atletico de Montcada 30%, draw 26%, L'Hospitalet 44%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on San Juan Atletico de Montcada v L'HospitaletBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

San Juan Atletico de Montcada win30%

Draw26%

L'Hospitalet win44%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 17:30

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Juan Atletico de Montcada

L'Hospitalet

4Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · l'hospitalet winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make L'Hospitalet a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Juan Atletico de Montcada v L'Hospitalet~~1.22 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 9 v 13~~11 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · L'Hospitalet win

Published at 45%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Juan Atletico de Montcada win	30%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
L'Hospitalet win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
San Juan Atletico de Montcada or draw	56%	–	–
San Juan Atletico de Montcada clean sheet	22%	–	–
L'Hospitalet clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.2 9.1 7.5 3.9 1 7.1 12.4 9.0 4.6 2 4.7 7.1 5.4 2.8 3 2.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Juan Atletico de Montcada down, L'Hospitalet across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

San Juan Atletico de Montcada at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). L'Hospitalet away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for San Juan Atletico de Montcada, 1.54 for L'Hospitalet. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 12 Sept

SAN JUAN ATLETICO DE MONTCADA

WLWLWL2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 0–2

L'HOSPITALET

WDDDWW2–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Hospitalet	7	+4	13
2	Vilanova	7	+4	13
3	Montañesa	7	+4	12
4	Grama	7	+7	11
5	Badalona	7	+6	11
6	Pobla Mafumet	7	+1	10
7	Atlètic Lleida	7	−1	9
8	Cerdanyola del Vallès	7	−1	9
9	Martinenc	7	−3	9
10	Tona	7	−3	9
11	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	7	−5	9
12	Europa II	7	+2	8
13	Peralada	7	+2	8
14	L'Escala	7	−1	8
15	Mollerussa	7	−1	8
16	San Cristóbal	7	−8	8
17	Cornellà	7	−1	7
18	Vilassar Mar	7	−6	7