Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 › San Juan Atletico de Montcada v Atlètic Lleida

San Juan Atletico de Montcada v Atlètic Lleida

San Juan Atletico de Montcada

0–3Full time

Atlètic Lleida

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida ATLÈTIC LLEIDA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlètic Lleida win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.579

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlètic Lleida win at 38%.
1′KICK-OFF San Juan Atletico de Montcada v Atlètic Lleida
2′Much as we predicted: Atlètic Lleida was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 35–27–39
10′Much as we predicted: Atlètic Lleida was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 34–28–38
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–1 Atlètic Lleida
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–2 Atlètic Lleida
45′HALF-TIME San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–2 Atlètic Lleida
46′SECOND HALF San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–2 Atlètic Lleida
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida
49′⚽ GOAL · 40' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida
49′⚽ GOAL · 45' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida
49′⚽ GOAL · 46' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida
51′⚽ GOAL · 40' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida
51′⚽ GOAL · 45' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida
51′⚽ GOAL · 46' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida
52′⚽ GOAL · 40' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida
52′⚽ GOAL · 45' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida
52′⚽ GOAL · 46' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida
53′🟥 RED CARD · 52' San Juan Atletico de Montcada
56′⚽ GOAL · 40' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida
56′⚽ GOAL · 45' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida
56′⚽ GOAL · 46' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida
56′🟥 RED CARD · 52' San Juan Atletico de Montcada
69′⚽ GOAL · 40' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida
69′⚽ GOAL · 45' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida
69′⚽ GOAL · 46' San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida
69′🟥 RED CARD · 52' San Juan Atletico de Montcada
79′PENALTY MISSED · 79' Atlètic Lleida
FTFULL TIME San Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida
FTSan Juan Atletico de Montcada 0–3 Atlètic Lleida · Atlètic Lleida win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

San Juan Atletico de Montcada win34%

Draw28%

Atlètic Lleida win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlètic lleida winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Atlètic Lleida a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Juan Atletico de Montcada win	34%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Atlètic Lleida win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
San Juan Atletico de Montcada or draw	62%	–	–
San Juan Atletico de Montcada clean sheet	27%	–	–
Atlètic Lleida clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.5 9.2 6.7 3.0 1 8.6 13.1 8.2 3.7 2 5.9 7.7 5.1 2.3 3 2.5 3.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Juan Atletico de Montcada down, Atlètic Lleida across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,474 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.3% of games this season, across 39 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

San Juan Atletico de Montcada at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Atlètic Lleida away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for San Juan Atletico de Montcada, 1.35 for Atlètic Lleida. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

SAN JUAN ATLETICO DE MONTCADA

LWLW0–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

ATLÈTIC LLEIDA

WDLWLD6–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Badalona	5	+6	9
2	Montañesa	4	+4	9
3	Europa II	5	+4	8
4	Vilanova	4	+2	8
5	Grama	4	+3	7
6	Pobla Mafumet	5	+1	7
7	Cornellà	4	+2	6
8	L'Hospitalet	4	+2	6
9	L'Escala	4	+1	6
10	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	4	−2	6
11	Peralada	4	+2	5
12	Martinenc	4	0	5
13	Cerdanyola del Vallès	4	−1	5
14	Atlètic Lleida	5	−4	5
15	Mollerussa	4	−1	4
16	San Cristóbal	4	−4	4
17	Tona	5	−5	3
18	Vilassar Mar	5	−10	3