San Cristóbal v L'Escala prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

San Cristóbal 1–1 L'Escala SAN CRISTÓBAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said San Cristóbal win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.798

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said San Cristóbal win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: San Cristóbal 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–35
1′KICK-OFF San Cristóbal v L'Escala
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was San Cristóbal win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME San Cristóbal 0–0 L'Escala
46′SECOND HALF San Cristóbal 0–0 L'Escala
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 28–45–26
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' San Cristóbal win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
61′A goal for L'Escala on 60′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–20–74
61′We said San Cristóbal at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–20–74
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' San Cristóbal 0–1 L'Escala
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' San Cristóbal win: 38% at kick-off, 5% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' L'Escala win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
65′We said San Cristóbal at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
74′San Cristóbal score on 74′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 18–65–17
74′We said San Cristóbal at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–65–17
74′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 18–65–17
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' San Cristóbal 1–1 L'Escala
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' San Cristóbal win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 65% (was L'Escala win 17%)
78′We said San Cristóbal at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' San Cristóbal win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
FTFULL TIME San Cristóbal 1–1 L'Escala
FTSan Cristóbal 1–1 L'Escala · San Cristóbal win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with San Cristóbal just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: San Cristóbal 38%, draw 27%, L'Escala 35%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on San Cristóbal v L'EscalaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

San Cristóbal win38%

Draw27%

L'Escala win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Cristóbal

L'Escala

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	L'Escala	6	−1	7
14	San Cristóbal	6	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san cristóbal winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:58 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make San Cristóbal a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Cristóbal v L'Escala~~1.40 – 1.32

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~14 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · San Cristóbal win

Published at 40%, 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Cristóbal win	38%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
L'Escala win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
San Cristóbal or draw	65%	–	–
San Cristóbal clean sheet	27%	–	–
L'Escala clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.5 8.0 5.8 2.6 1 8.5 12.8 7.9 3.5 2 6.4 8.4 5.5 2.5 3 3.0 3.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Cristóbal down, L'Escala across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,489 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Cristóbal at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). L'Escala away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for San Cristóbal, 1.32 for L'Escala. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LES 3–0 SAN · SAN 0–1 LES · SAN 1–0 LES · LES 0–1 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 Sept

SAN CRISTÓBAL

DLWLWL1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 0–5

L'ESCALA

LWLWDL1–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Montañesa	6	+5	12
2	Grama	7	+7	11
3	Badalona	6	+6	10
4	L'Hospitalet	6	+3	10
5	Pobla Mafumet	6	+2	10
6	Vilanova	6	+2	10
7	Martinenc	6	+1	9
8	Europa II	6	+3	8
9	Atlètic Lleida	6	−1	8
10	Peralada	6	+2	7
11	Cornellà	6	+1	7
12	L'Escala	6	−1	7
13	Mollerussa	6	−1	7
14	San Cristóbal	6	−8	7
15	Cerdanyola del Vallès	6	−2	6
16	Tona	6	−4	6
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	−5	6
18	Vilassar Mar	6	−10	4