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Model 1.1

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San Cristóbal v Grama

San Cristóbal
0–5Full time
Grama

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 22:18
San Cristóbal 0–5 Grama GRAMA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Grama win38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.582

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Grama win at 38%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF San Cristóbal v Grama
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Grama 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 34–28–38
  4. 11′A goal for Grama on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–21–67
  5. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' San Cristóbal 0–1 Grama
  6. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Grama win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
  7. 12′We said Grama at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 0–1 · 13–21–67
  8. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Grama win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
  9. 24′24′ and it is 0–2: Grama have scored. 0–2 · 3–8–89
  10. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' San Cristóbal 0–2 Grama
  11. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Grama win: 38% at kick-off, 89% now
  12. 26′We said Grama at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
  13. 28′We said Grama at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
  14. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' San Cristóbal 0–3 Grama
  15. 32′Grama find the net on 31′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–2–98
  16. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Grama win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
  17. 33′We said Grama at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–3 · 0–2–98
  18. 34′A goal for Grama on 33′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  19. 34′⚽ GOAL · 33' San Cristóbal 0–4 Grama
  20. 35′We said Grama at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  21. 36′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  22. 45′HALF-TIME San Cristóbal 0–4 Grama
  23. 46′R. Ortega scores for Grama on 35′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  24. 46′SECOND HALF San Cristóbal 0–4 Grama
  25. 87′87′ and it is 0–5: Grama have scored. 0–5 · 0–0–100
  26. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' San Cristóbal 0–5 Grama
  27. 88′5 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 0–5 · 0–0–100
  28. FTFULL TIME San Cristóbal 0–5 Grama
  29. FTSan Cristóbal 0–5 Grama · Grama win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on San Cristóbal v GramaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 18:47 · locked at kick-off

San Cristóbal win34%
Draw29%
Grama win38%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 19:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

San Cristóbal

Grama

3Days since last match3
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Grama527
12San Cristóbal5-37

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · grama winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 14 Oct 18:47 · locked at kick-off
38% The market–
Us38%

We make Grama a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · San Cristóbal v Grama1.19 – 1.28
Last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 7 v 712 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 10 OCT 03:5912 OCT 00:12
Our probability · grama win

Published at 39%, 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
San Cristóbal win34%––
Draw29%––
Grama win38%––
Over 2.5 goals45%––
Both teams to score51%––
Over 1.5 goals71%––
Over 3.5 goals24%––
San Cristóbal or draw62%––
San Cristóbal clean sheet28%––
Grama clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%
0123450 9.3 10.1 6.9 3.0 1 9.4 13.5 8.1 3.5 2 6.0 7.6 4.8 2.1 3 2.4 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+San Cristóbal down, Grama across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.40
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsGRA 3–1 SAN · SAN 1–1 GRA · GRA 0–0 SAN · SAN 0–3 GRA

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

SAN CRISTÓBAL

LDLWLW0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 1–0

GRAMA

WWDLWL1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Badalona6610
2Pobla Mafumet6210
3Montañesa539
4Vilanova529
5Europa II638
6Martinenc518
7Atlètic Lleida6-18
8L'Hospitalet527
9Grama527
10L'Escala517
11Mollerussa507
12San Cristóbal5-37
13Peralada526
14Cornellà516
15Tona6-46
16San Juan Atletico de Montcada5-56
17Cerdanyola del Vallès5-25
18Vilassar Mar6-104

The competition's standings.