Pobla Mafumet v Mollerussa prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Pobla MafumetDrawMollerussa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Pobla Mafumet 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pobla Mafumet are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pobla Mafumet 46%, draw 28%, Mollerussa 26%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Pobla Mafumet v MollerussaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Pobla Mafumet win46%

Draw28%

Mollerussa win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pobla Mafumet

Mollerussa

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Pobla Mafumet	7	+1	10
15	Mollerussa	7	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pobla mafumet winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Pobla Mafumet a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pobla Mafumet v Mollerussa~~1.44 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 8~~6 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pobla Mafumet win	46%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Mollerussa win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Pobla Mafumet or draw	74%	–	–
Pobla Mafumet clean sheet	36%	–	–
Mollerussa clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.4 8.0 4.5 1 11.5 13.1 6.3 2.2 2 8.8 8.9 4.5 3 4.3 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pobla Mafumet down, Mollerussa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pobla Mafumet at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Mollerussa away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Pobla Mafumet, 1.03 for Mollerussa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~POB 3–1 MOL · MOL 1–0 POB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 13 Sept

POBLA MAFUMET

WWLDWL2–1 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

MOLLERUSSA

LLDWLD0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Hospitalet	7	+4	13
2	Vilanova	7	+4	13
3	Montañesa	7	+4	12
4	Grama	7	+7	11
5	Badalona	7	+6	11
6	Pobla Mafumet	7	+1	10
7	Atlètic Lleida	7	−1	9
8	Cerdanyola del Vallès	7	−1	9
9	Martinenc	7	−3	9
10	Tona	7	−3	9
11	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	7	−5	9
12	Europa II	7	+2	8
13	Peralada	7	+2	8
14	L'Escala	7	−1	8
15	Mollerussa	7	−1	8
16	San Cristóbal	7	−8	8
17	Cornellà	7	−1	7
18	Vilassar Mar	7	−6	7