Pobla Mafumet v Cornellà prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Pobla Mafumet 1–0 Cornellà POBLA MAFUMET WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pobla Mafumet win~~38%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.586

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.787

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pobla Mafumet win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pobla Mafumet 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
1′KICK-OFF Pobla Mafumet v Cornellà
3′Little has changed for our model: Pobla Mafumet 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Pobla Mafumet win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Pobla Mafumet 0–0 Cornellà
46′SECOND HALF Pobla Mafumet 0–0 Cornellà
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pobla Mafumet win 31%)
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pobla Mafumet win 31%)
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pobla Mafumet win 31%)
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pobla Mafumet win 31%)
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pobla Mafumet win 31%)
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pobla Mafumet win 31%)
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Pobla Mafumet 1–0 Cornellà
FTFULL TIME Pobla Mafumet 1–0 Cornellà
FTPobla Mafumet 1–0 Cornellà · Pobla Mafumet win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Pobla Mafumet win38%

Draw29%

Cornellà win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pobla Mafumet

Cornellà

7Days since last match14

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Pobla Mafumet	5	+1	7
9	Cornellà	4	+2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pobla mafumet winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

38% The market28%

Us38%

~~Market~~28%

We make Pobla Mafumet a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pobla mafumet win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pobla Mafumet win	38%	28%	+9
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Cornellà win	33%	44%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	44%	53%	−9
Both teams to score	50%	57%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	71%	73%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	33%	−10
Pobla Mafumet or draw	67%	56%	+11
Pobla Mafumet clean sheet	31%	–	–
Cornellà clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 9.8 9.5 6.0 2.4 1 10.2 13.6 7.5 3.0 2 6.9 8.0 4.7 3 3.0 3.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pobla Mafumet down, Cornellà across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,476 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Pobla Mafumet at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Cornellà away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Pobla Mafumet, 1.18 for Cornellà. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

POBLA MAFUMET

LLWWLD0–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 1–1

CORNELLÀ

WLDWDD4–1 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Badalona	5	+6	9
2	Montañesa	4	+4	9
3	Europa II	5	+4	8
4	Vilanova	4	+2	8
5	Atlètic Lleida	6	−1	8
6	Grama	4	+3	7
7	L'Escala	5	+1	7
8	Pobla Mafumet	5	+1	7
9	Cornellà	4	+2	6
10	L'Hospitalet	4	+2	6
11	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	−5	6
12	Peralada	4	+2	5
13	Martinenc	4	0	5
14	Cerdanyola del Vallès	4	−1	5
15	Mollerussa	4	−1	4
16	San Cristóbal	4	−4	4
17	Vilassar Mar	6	−10	4
18	Tona	5	−5	3