Peralada v Cerdanyola del Vallès prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PeraladaDrawCerdanyola del Vallès

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Peralada 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Peralada are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Peralada 54%, draw 26%, Cerdanyola del Vallès 20%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Peralada v Cerdanyola del VallèsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Peralada win54%

Draw26%

Cerdanyola del Vallès win20%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Peralada

Cerdanyola del Vallès

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Cerdanyola del Vallès	7	−1	9
13	Peralada	7	+2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · peralada winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Peralada a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Peralada v Cerdanyola del Vallès~~1.64 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 9~~13 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Peralada win	54%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Cerdanyola del Vallès win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Peralada or draw	80%	–	–
Peralada clean sheet	41%	–	–
Cerdanyola del Vallès clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.5%

0123450 8.8 6.5 3.2 1 12.5 12.2 5.1 2 10.7 9.4 4.2 3 5.8 5.1 2.3 4 2.4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Peralada down, Cerdanyola del Vallès across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Peralada at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cerdanyola del Vallès away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Peralada, 0.89 for Cerdanyola del Vallès. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CER 2–2 PER · PER 2–2 CER · CER 1–2 PER · PER 0–3 CER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 12 Sept

PERALADA

LDWDDD0–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

CERDANYOLA DEL VALLÈS

LWDLDW1–3 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Hospitalet	7	+4	13
2	Vilanova	7	+4	13
3	Montañesa	7	+4	12
4	Grama	7	+7	11
5	Badalona	7	+6	11
6	Pobla Mafumet	7	+1	10
7	Atlètic Lleida	7	−1	9
8	Cerdanyola del Vallès	7	−1	9
9	Martinenc	7	−3	9
10	Tona	7	−3	9
11	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	7	−5	9
12	Europa II	7	+2	8
13	Peralada	7	+2	8
14	L'Escala	7	−1	8
15	Mollerussa	7	−1	8
16	San Cristóbal	7	−8	8
17	Cornellà	7	−1	7
18	Vilassar Mar	7	−6	7