Montañesa v Vilassar Mar prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MontañesaDrawVilassar Mar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Montañesa 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Montañesa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Montañesa 45%, draw 30%, Vilassar Mar 25%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Montañesa v Vilassar MarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Montañesa win45%

Draw30%

Vilassar Mar win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Montañesa

Vilassar Mar

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Montañesa	7	+4	12
18	Vilassar Mar	7	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · montañesa winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Montañesa a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Montañesa v Vilassar Mar~~1.26 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 7~~3 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Montañesa win	45%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Vilassar Mar win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Montañesa or draw	75%	–	–
Montañesa clean sheet	42%	–	–
Vilassar Mar clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 12.8 9.6 4.5 1 14.3 13.6 5.6 2 9.5 8.1 3.5 3 4.0 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Montañesa down, Vilassar Mar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Montañesa at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Vilassar Mar away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Montañesa, 0.86 for Vilassar Mar. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VIL 0–1 MON · MON 2–2 VIL · MON 4–0 VIL · VIL 0–0 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 12 Sept

MONTAÑESA

WWLLWL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–1

VILASSAR MAR

LLLLDW1–2 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–6 · 2–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Hospitalet	7	+4	13
2	Vilanova	7	+4	13
3	Montañesa	7	+4	12
4	Grama	7	+7	11
5	Badalona	7	+6	11
6	Pobla Mafumet	7	+1	10
7	Atlètic Lleida	7	−1	9
8	Cerdanyola del Vallès	7	−1	9
9	Martinenc	7	−3	9
10	Tona	7	−3	9
11	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	7	−5	9
12	Europa II	7	+2	8
13	Peralada	7	+2	8
14	L'Escala	7	−1	8
15	Mollerussa	7	−1	8
16	San Cristóbal	7	−8	8
17	Cornellà	7	−1	7
18	Vilassar Mar	7	−6	7