Mollerussa v Peralada prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Mollerussa 2–2 Peralada PERALADA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Peralada win~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.746

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Peralada win at 35%.
1′Much as we predicted: Peralada was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–30–35
1′KICK-OFF Mollerussa v Peralada
19′Mollerussa find the net on 19′. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–21–12
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Mollerussa 1–0 Peralada
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Peralada win: 35% at kick-off, 12% now
20′We said Peralada at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–0 · 67–21–12
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 68–22–10
35′We said Peralada at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
36′A goal for Peralada on 36′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 31–39–31
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Mollerussa 1–1 Peralada
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Peralada win: 35% at kick-off, 31% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Mollerussa win 31%)
45′E. Sibecas scores for Peralada on 34′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 28–43–29
45′HALF-TIME Mollerussa 1–1 Peralada
46′SECOND HALF Mollerussa 1–1 Peralada
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Peralada win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
61′We said Peralada at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–54–23
69′We said Peralada at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Peralada win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
82′Mollerussa score on 82′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 91–9–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Mollerussa 2–1 Peralada
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Peralada win: 35% at kick-off, under 1% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Mollerussa win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 9%)
83′We said Peralada at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 2–1 · 92–8–0
83′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 92–8–0
85′Peralada find the net on 85′. 2–2. 2–2 · 6–87–7
85′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 6–87–7
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Mollerussa 2–2 Peralada
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Mollerussa win 6%)
FTFULL TIME Mollerussa 2–2 Peralada
FTMollerussa 2–2 Peralada · Peralada win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Peralada just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Mollerussa 35%, draw 29%, Peralada 35%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Mollerussa v PeraladaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mollerussa win35%

Draw29%

Peralada win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mollerussa

Peralada

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Peralada	6	+2	7
13	Mollerussa	6	−1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · peralada winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

35% The market–

Us35%

We make Peralada a 35% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mollerussa v Peralada~~1.18 – 1.19

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~13 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mollerussa win	35%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Peralada win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Mollerussa or draw	65%	–	–
Mollerussa clean sheet	31%	–	–
Peralada clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.4 10.4 6.6 2.6 1 10.3 13.8 7.7 3.1 2 6.5 7.6 4.5 3 2.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mollerussa down, Peralada across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,489 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mollerussa at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Peralada away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Mollerussa, 1.19 for Peralada. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~PER 0–0 MOL · MOL 1–2 PER · PER 2–3 MOL · MOL 4–3 PER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 Sept

MOLLERUSSA

WLLDWL1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

PERALADA

DLDWDD1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Montañesa	6	+5	12
2	Grama	7	+7	11
3	Badalona	6	+6	10
4	L'Hospitalet	6	+3	10
5	Pobla Mafumet	6	+2	10
6	Vilanova	6	+2	10
7	Martinenc	6	+1	9
8	Europa II	6	+3	8
9	Atlètic Lleida	6	−1	8
10	Peralada	6	+2	7
11	Cornellà	6	+1	7
12	L'Escala	6	−1	7
13	Mollerussa	6	−1	7
14	San Cristóbal	6	−8	7
15	Cerdanyola del Vallès	6	−2	6
16	Tona	6	−4	6
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	−5	6
18	Vilassar Mar	6	−10	4