Mollerussa v Cerdanyola del Vallès prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Mollerussa 1–0 Cerdanyola del Vallès MOLLERUSSA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mollerussa win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.408

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mollerussa win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mollerussa 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
1′KICK-OFF Mollerussa v Cerdanyola del Vallès
2′Little has changed for our model: Mollerussa 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
45′HALF-TIME Mollerussa 0–0 Cerdanyola del Vallès
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Mollerussa win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Mollerussa win: 48% at kick-off, 40% now
46′SECOND HALF Mollerussa 0–0 Cerdanyola del Vallès
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Mollerussa win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Mollerussa win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Mollerussa 1–0 Cerdanyola del Vallès
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Mollerussa win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Mollerussa win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Mollerussa win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Mollerussa win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
FTFULL TIME Mollerussa 1–0 Cerdanyola del Vallès
FTMollerussa 1–0 Cerdanyola del Vallès · Mollerussa win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Mollerussa win48%

Draw27%

Cerdanyola del Vallès win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mollerussa

Cerdanyola del Vallès

14Days since last match14

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Cerdanyola del Vallès	4	−1	5
15	Mollerussa	4	−1	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mollerussa winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Mollerussa a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mollerussa win	48%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Cerdanyola del Vallès win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Mollerussa or draw	75%	–	–
Mollerussa clean sheet	34%	–	–
Cerdanyola del Vallès clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.1 6.9 4.1 1 10.4 12.7 6.4 2.3 2 8.7 9.2 5.0 3 4.6 4.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mollerussa down, Cerdanyola del Vallès across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,476 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mollerussa at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Cerdanyola del Vallès away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Mollerussa, 1.07 for Cerdanyola del Vallès. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MOL 3–2 CER · CER 0–0 MOL · MOL 1–3 CER · CER 0–0 MOL

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

MOLLERUSSA

LWWLLD1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

CERDANYOLA DEL VALLÈS

DWDLWD2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Badalona	5	+6	9
2	Montañesa	4	+4	9
3	Europa II	5	+4	8
4	Vilanova	4	+2	8
5	Atlètic Lleida	6	−1	8
6	Grama	4	+3	7
7	L'Escala	5	+1	7
8	Pobla Mafumet	5	+1	7
9	Cornellà	4	+2	6
10	L'Hospitalet	4	+2	6
11	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	−5	6
12	Peralada	4	+2	5
13	Martinenc	4	0	5
14	Cerdanyola del Vallès	4	−1	5
15	Mollerussa	4	−1	4
16	San Cristóbal	4	−4	4
17	Vilassar Mar	6	−10	4
18	Tona	5	−5	3