Martinenc v San Cristóbal prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MartinencDrawSan Cristóbal

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Martinenc 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Martinenc are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Martinenc 49%, draw 25%, San Cristóbal 26%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Martinenc v San CristóbalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Martinenc win49%

Draw25%

San Cristóbal win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Martinenc

San Cristóbal

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Martinenc	7	−3	9
16	San Cristóbal	7	−8	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · martinenc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Martinenc a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Martinenc v San Cristóbal~~1.69 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~9 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Martinenc win	49%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
San Cristóbal win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Martinenc or draw	74%	–	–
Martinenc clean sheet	32%	–	–
San Cristóbal clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.6 6.2 4.0 1 9.1 11.8 6.5 2.6 2 8.2 9.3 5.4 2.1 3 4.6 5.3 3.1 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Martinenc down, San Cristóbal across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Martinenc at home: 2.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 3). San Cristóbal away: 0.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Martinenc, 1.17 for San Cristóbal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 13 Sept

MARTINENC

DDLWDL1–1 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 0–4

SAN CRISTÓBAL

LWLWLD1–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Hospitalet	7	+4	13
2	Vilanova	7	+4	13
3	Montañesa	7	+4	12
4	Grama	7	+7	11
5	Badalona	7	+6	11
6	Pobla Mafumet	7	+1	10
7	Atlètic Lleida	7	−1	9
8	Cerdanyola del Vallès	7	−1	9
9	Martinenc	7	−3	9
10	Tona	7	−3	9
11	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	7	−5	9
12	Europa II	7	+2	8
13	Peralada	7	+2	8
14	L'Escala	7	−1	8
15	Mollerussa	7	−1	8
16	San Cristóbal	7	−8	8
17	Cornellà	7	−1	7
18	Vilassar Mar	7	−6	7