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Martinenc v Montañesa

Martinenc

3–2Full time

Montañesa

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Martinenc 3–2 Montañesa MARTINENC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Martinenc win~~44%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.476

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.632

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Martinenc win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Martinenc was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–28
2′Much as we predicted: Martinenc was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–28
20′18′ and it is 0–1: Montañesa have scored. 0–1 · 17–25–59
25′Martinenc find the net on 21′. 1–1. 1–1 · 40–33–27
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Montañesa win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Martinenc win 17%)
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Martinenc win: 44% at kick-off, 40% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Martinenc win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Montañesa win 27%)
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Martinenc win: 44% at kick-off, 17% now
30′⚽ GOAL · 18' Martinenc 1–1 Montañesa
30′⚽ GOAL · 21' Martinenc 1–1 Montañesa
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Martinenc win: 44% at kick-off, 17% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Montañesa win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Martinenc win 17%)
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Martinenc win: 44% at kick-off, 40% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Martinenc win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Montañesa win 27%)
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Martinenc win: 44% at kick-off, 40% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Martinenc win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Montañesa win 27%)
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Martinenc win: 44% at kick-off, 17% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Montañesa win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Martinenc win 17%)
32′Martinenc find the net on 21′. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–36–26
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Martinenc win: 44% at kick-off, 40% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Martinenc win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Montañesa win 27%)
45′A goal for Martinenc on 45′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 76–18–5
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Martinenc 2–1 Montañesa
45′HALF-TIME Martinenc 2–1 Montañesa
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Martinenc win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Martinenc win: 44% at kick-off, 36% now
46′SECOND HALF Martinenc 2–1 Montañesa
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Martinenc win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Martinenc win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Martinenc win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Martinenc win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Martinenc win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Martinenc win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Martinenc 2–2 Montañesa
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Martinenc 3–2 Montañesa
FTFULL TIME Martinenc 3–2 Montañesa
FTMartinenc 3–2 Montañesa · Martinenc win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Martinenc win44%

Draw29%

Montañesa win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Martinenc

Montañesa

14Days since last match14

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Montañesa	4	+4	9
13	Martinenc	4	0	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · martinenc winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

44% The market35%

Us44%

~~Market~~35%

We make Martinenc a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · martinenc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Martinenc win	44%	35%	+9
Draw	29%	31%	−2
Montañesa win	28%	34%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	43%	42%	+1
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	67%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	23%	0
Martinenc or draw	72%	66%	+6
Martinenc clean sheet	36%	–	–
Montañesa clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.1 8.5 4.9 1 11.5 13.4 6.5 2.3 2 8.4 8.6 4.5 3 3.9 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Martinenc down, Montañesa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,476 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Martinenc at home: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). Montañesa away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Martinenc, 1.04 for Montañesa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

MARTINENC

WDDL2–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 2–3

MONTAÑESA

LLWWWL0–1 · 0–5 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Badalona	5	+6	9
2	Montañesa	4	+4	9
3	Europa II	5	+4	8
4	Vilanova	4	+2	8
5	Atlètic Lleida	6	−1	8
6	Grama	4	+3	7
7	L'Escala	5	+1	7
8	Pobla Mafumet	5	+1	7
9	Cornellà	4	+2	6
10	L'Hospitalet	4	+2	6
11	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	−5	6
12	Peralada	4	+2	5
13	Martinenc	4	0	5
14	Cerdanyola del Vallès	4	−1	5
15	Mollerussa	4	−1	4
16	San Cristóbal	4	−4	4
17	Vilassar Mar	6	−10	4
18	Tona	5	−5	3