L'Hospitalet v Pobla Mafumet prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

L'Hospitalet 2–1 Pobla Mafumet L'HOSPITALET WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said L'Hospitalet win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.359

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said L'Hospitalet win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: L'Hospitalet 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–27–22
1′KICK-OFF L'Hospitalet v Pobla Mafumet
24′L'Hospitalet score on 24′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–16–6
24′We said L'Hospitalet at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–16–6
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' L'Hospitalet 1–0 Pobla Mafumet
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' L'Hospitalet win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 78–16–6
36′L'Hospitalet find the net on 36′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
36′We said L'Hospitalet at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' L'Hospitalet 2–0 Pobla Mafumet
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' L'Hospitalet win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
38′A goal for Pobla Mafumet on 38′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 79–16–5
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' L'Hospitalet 2–1 Pobla Mafumet
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' L'Hospitalet win: 51% at kick-off, 79% now
39′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–16–5
44′We said L'Hospitalet at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
45′N. A. Aguzzi Bettini scores for Pobla Mafumet on 37′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 80–16–4
45′HALF-TIME L'Hospitalet 2–1 Pobla Mafumet
46′SECOND HALF L'Hospitalet 2–1 Pobla Mafumet
67′We said L'Hospitalet at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
77′We said L'Hospitalet at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' L'Hospitalet win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
FTFULL TIME L'Hospitalet 2–1 Pobla Mafumet
FTL'Hospitalet 2–1 Pobla Mafumet · L'Hospitalet win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

L'Hospitalet are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: L'Hospitalet 51%, draw 27%, Pobla Mafumet 22%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on L'Hospitalet v Pobla MafumetBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

L'Hospitalet win51%

Draw27%

Pobla Mafumet win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

L'Hospitalet

Pobla Mafumet

4Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	L'Hospitalet	6	+3	10
5	Pobla Mafumet	6	+2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · l'hospitalet winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make L'Hospitalet a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · L'Hospitalet v Pobla Mafumet~~1.59 – 0.96

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 10~~4 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
L'Hospitalet win	51%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Pobla Mafumet win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
L'Hospitalet or draw	78%	–	–
L'Hospitalet clean sheet	38%	–	–
Pobla Mafumet clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.7 6.8 3.6 1 11.7 12.5 5.7 2 9.8 9.3 4.5 3 5.2 4.9 2.4 4 2.1 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+L'Hospitalet down, Pobla Mafumet across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,489 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

L'Hospitalet at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Pobla Mafumet away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for L'Hospitalet, 0.96 for Pobla Mafumet. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LHO 2–0 POB · POB 3–0 LHO · LHO 1–0 POB · POB 2–1 LHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 Sept

L'HOSPITALET

DWDDDW2–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

POBLA MAFUMET

LWWLDW0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Montañesa	6	+5	12
2	Grama	7	+7	11
3	Badalona	6	+6	10
4	L'Hospitalet	6	+3	10
5	Pobla Mafumet	6	+2	10
6	Vilanova	6	+2	10
7	Martinenc	6	+1	9
8	Europa II	6	+3	8
9	Atlètic Lleida	6	−1	8
10	Peralada	6	+2	7
11	Cornellà	6	+1	7
12	L'Escala	6	−1	7
13	Mollerussa	6	−1	7
14	San Cristóbal	6	−8	7
15	Cerdanyola del Vallès	6	−2	6
16	Tona	6	−4	6
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	−5	6
18	Vilassar Mar	6	−10	4