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L'Escala v Vilassar Mar

L'Escala

2–2Full time

Vilassar Mar

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

L'Escala 2–2 Vilassar Mar L'ESCALA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said L'Escala win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.846

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said L'Escala win at 50%.
15′L'Escala find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
17′L'Escala find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
37′36′ and it is 1–2: Vilassar Mar have scored. 1–2 · 16–26–58
40′36′ and it is 1–2: Vilassar Mar have scored. 1–2 · 15–26–59
45′We said L'Escala at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–2 · 13–26–61
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Vilassar Mar win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was L'Escala win 13%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' L'Escala win: 50% at kick-off, 13% now
46′SECOND HALF L'Escala 1–2 Vilassar Mar
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' L'Escala win: 50% at kick-off, 13% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Vilassar Mar win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was L'Escala win 13%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' L'Escala win: 50% at kick-off, 13% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Vilassar Mar win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was L'Escala win 13%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' L'Escala win: 50% at kick-off, 13% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Vilassar Mar win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was L'Escala win 13%)
68′⚽ GOAL · 15' L'Escala 1–2 Vilassar Mar
68′⚽ GOAL · 36' L'Escala 1–2 Vilassar Mar
71′⚽ GOAL · 15' L'Escala 1–2 Vilassar Mar
71′⚽ GOAL · 36' L'Escala 1–2 Vilassar Mar
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' L'Escala 2–2 Vilassar Mar
FTFULL TIME L'Escala 2–2 Vilassar Mar
FTL'Escala 2–2 Vilassar Mar · L'Escala win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

L'Escala win50%

Draw26%

Vilassar Mar win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · l'escala winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

50% The market–

Us50%

We make L'Escala a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
L'Escala win	50%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Vilassar Mar win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
L'Escala or draw	77%	–	–
L'Escala clean sheet	36%	–	–
Vilassar Mar clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.2 6.7 3.8 1 10.8 12.5 6.0 2.1 2 9.3 9.4 4.8 3 5.0 5.0 2.6 4 2.0 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+L'Escala down, Vilassar Mar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,474 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.3% of games this season, across 39 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

L'Escala at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Vilassar Mar away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for L'Escala, 1.02 for Vilassar Mar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LES 1–4 VIL · VIL 1–1 LES · LES 2–2 VIL · VIL 1–0 LES

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

L'ESCALA

WLLWLW4–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 3–2

VILASSAR MAR

LWLLLL0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Badalona	5	+6	9
2	Montañesa	4	+4	9
3	Europa II	5	+4	8
4	Vilanova	4	+2	8
5	Grama	4	+3	7
6	Pobla Mafumet	5	+1	7
7	Cornellà	4	+2	6
8	L'Hospitalet	4	+2	6
9	L'Escala	4	+1	6
10	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	4	−2	6
11	Peralada	4	+2	5
12	Martinenc	4	0	5
13	Cerdanyola del Vallès	4	−1	5
14	Atlètic Lleida	5	−4	5
15	Mollerussa	4	−1	4
16	San Cristóbal	4	−4	4
17	Tona	5	−5	3
18	Vilassar Mar	5	−10	3