L'Escala v Tona prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

L'EscalaDrawTona

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · L'Escala 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

L'Escala are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: L'Escala 41%, draw 27%, Tona 32%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on L'Escala v TonaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

L'Escala win41%

Draw27%

Tona win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

L'Escala

Tona

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Tona	7	−3	9
14	L'Escala	7	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · l'escala winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make L'Escala a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · L'Escala v Tona~~1.45 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 9~~14 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
L'Escala win	41%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Tona win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
L'Escala or draw	68%	–	–
L'Escala clean sheet	29%	–	–
Tona clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.7 7.8 5.2 2.2 1 9.3 12.8 7.4 3.1 2 7.2 8.7 5.4 2.2 3 3.5 4.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+L'Escala down, Tona across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

L'Escala at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Tona away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for L'Escala, 1.24 for Tona. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TON 2–0 LES · LES 1–1 TON · TON 2–1 LES · LES 2–1 TON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 13 Sept

L'ESCALA

WLWDLD2–0 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

TONA

WLLLWW1–0 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Hospitalet	7	+4	13
2	Vilanova	7	+4	13
3	Montañesa	7	+4	12
4	Grama	7	+7	11
5	Badalona	7	+6	11
6	Pobla Mafumet	7	+1	10
7	Atlètic Lleida	7	−1	9
8	Cerdanyola del Vallès	7	−1	9
9	Martinenc	7	−3	9
10	Tona	7	−3	9
11	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	7	−5	9
12	Europa II	7	+2	8
13	Peralada	7	+2	8
14	L'Escala	7	−1	8
15	Mollerussa	7	−1	8
16	San Cristóbal	7	−8	8
17	Cornellà	7	−1	7
18	Vilassar Mar	7	−6	7