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Model 1.1

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Grama v Tona

Grama
0–1Full time
Tona

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41
Grama 0–1 Tona GRAMA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Grama win49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.877

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 7 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Grama win at 49%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Grama 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Grama v Tona
  4. 10′Little has changed for our model: Grama 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
  5. 11′Little has changed for our model: Grama 49% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–25
  6. 37′🟥 RED CARD · 37' Grama
  7. 43′🟥 RED CARD · 37' Grama
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Grama 0–0 Tona
  9. 46′SECOND HALF Grama 0–0 Tona
  10. 63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Grama 0–1 Tona
  11. FTFULL TIME Grama 0–1 Tona
  12. FTGrama 0–1 Tona · Grama win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Grama win49%
Draw27%
Tona win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Grama

Tona

14Days since last match8
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Grama4+37
18Tona5−53

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · grama winPublished 11 Oct 10:36
49% The market–
Us49%

We make Grama a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Grama win49%––
Draw27%––
Tona win25%––
Over 2.5 goals48%––
Both teams to score51%––
Over 1.5 goals74%––
Over 3.5 goals26%––
Grama or draw75%––
Grama clean sheet36%––
Tona clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%
0123450 8.4 7.0 4.0 1 10.8 12.7 6.2 2.2 2 9.0 9.2 4.8 3 4.7 4.8 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Grama down, Tona across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting2.62
Over 2.54 of 8
Both scored4 of 8
Last meetingsGRA 2–2 TON · TON 1–3 GRA · GRA 0–0 TON · TON 0–2 GRA

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

GRAMA

WWWDLW2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0

TONA

WLWLLL2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Badalona5+69
2Montañesa4+49
3Europa II5+48
4Vilanova4+28
5Atlètic Lleida6−18
6Grama4+37
7L'Escala5+17
8Pobla Mafumet5+17
9Cornellà4+26
10L'Hospitalet4+26
11San Juan Atletico de Montcada5−56
12Peralada4+25
13Martinenc405
14Cerdanyola del Vallès4−15
15Mollerussa4−14
16San Cristóbal4−44
17Vilassar Mar6−104
18Tona5−53

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.