Grama v Atlètic Lleida prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GramaDrawAtlètic Lleida

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Grama 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Grama are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Grama 41%, draw 27%, Atlètic Lleida 32%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Grama v Atlètic LleidaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Grama win41%

Draw27%

Atlètic Lleida win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:45

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Grama

Atlètic Lleida

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Grama	7	+7	11
7	Atlètic Lleida	7	−1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · grama winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Grama a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Grama v Atlètic Lleida~~1.44 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 9~~4 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Grama win	41%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Atlètic Lleida win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Grama or draw	68%	–	–
Grama clean sheet	30%	–	–
Atlètic Lleida clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.8 7.9 5.2 2.2 1 9.4 12.8 7.4 3.1 2 7.2 8.7 5.3 2.2 3 3.5 4.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Grama down, Atlètic Lleida across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Grama at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Atlètic Lleida away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Grama, 1.23 for Atlètic Lleida. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GRA 1–1 ATL · ATL 2–1 GRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 13 Sept

GRAMA

DLWLWD1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 5–0 · 0–0

ATLÈTIC LLEIDA

LWLDWD0–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Hospitalet	7	+4	13
2	Vilanova	7	+4	13
3	Montañesa	7	+4	12
4	Grama	7	+7	11
5	Badalona	7	+6	11
6	Pobla Mafumet	7	+1	10
7	Atlètic Lleida	7	−1	9
8	Cerdanyola del Vallès	7	−1	9
9	Martinenc	7	−3	9
10	Tona	7	−3	9
11	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	7	−5	9
12	Europa II	7	+2	8
13	Peralada	7	+2	8
14	L'Escala	7	−1	8
15	Mollerussa	7	−1	8
16	San Cristóbal	7	−8	8
17	Cornellà	7	−1	7
18	Vilassar Mar	7	−6	7