Europa II v Vilanova prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Europa IIDrawVilanova

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Vilanova 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Vilanova just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Europa II 34%, draw 30%, Vilanova 36%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Europa II v VilanovaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Europa II win34%

Draw30%

Vilanova win36%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Europa II

Vilanova

7Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

Last match: 21 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Vilanova	7	+4	13
12	Europa II	7	+2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vilanova winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Vilanova a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Europa II v Vilanova~~1.15 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 13~~12 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vilanova win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Europa II win	34%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Vilanova win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Europa II or draw	64%	–	–
Europa II clean sheet	31%	–	–
Vilanova clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.6 10.7 6.8 2.7 1 10.4 13.8 7.7 3.1 2 6.4 7.5 4.4 3 2.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Europa II down, Vilanova across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Europa II at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Vilanova away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Europa II, 1.19 for Vilanova. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VIL 3–0 EUR · EUR 1–2 VIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 13 Sept

EUROPA II

LDWWLL0–2 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 6–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

VILANOVA

WDWDDW1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Hospitalet	7	+4	13
2	Vilanova	7	+4	13
3	Montañesa	7	+4	12
4	Grama	7	+7	11
5	Badalona	7	+6	11
6	Pobla Mafumet	7	+1	10
7	Atlètic Lleida	7	−1	9
8	Cerdanyola del Vallès	7	−1	9
9	Martinenc	7	−3	9
10	Tona	7	−3	9
11	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	7	−5	9
12	Europa II	7	+2	8
13	Peralada	7	+2	8
14	L'Escala	7	−1	8
15	Mollerussa	7	−1	8
16	San Cristóbal	7	−8	8
17	Cornellà	7	−1	7
18	Vilassar Mar	7	−6	7