Europa II v San Cristóbal prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Europa II 0–1 San Cristóbal EUROPA II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Europa II win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.863

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Europa II win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Europa II was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
1′KICK-OFF Europa II v San Cristóbal
2′Much as we predicted: Europa II was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
45′HALF-TIME Europa II 0–0 San Cristóbal
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Europa II win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Europa II win: 49% at kick-off, 41% now
46′SECOND HALF Europa II 0–0 San Cristóbal
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Europa II win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Europa II win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Europa II 0–1 San Cristóbal
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Europa II win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Europa II win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Europa II win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Europa II win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
FTFULL TIME Europa II 0–1 San Cristóbal
FTEuropa II 0–1 San Cristóbal · Europa II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Europa II win49%

Draw26%

San Cristóbal win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Europa II

San Cristóbal

7Days since last match14

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Europa II	5	+4	8
16	San Cristóbal	4	−4	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · europa ii winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Europa II a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Europa II win	49%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
San Cristóbal win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Europa II or draw	75%	–	–
Europa II clean sheet	33%	–	–
San Cristóbal clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.1 6.3 4.0 1 9.5 12.2 6.4 2.4 2 8.4 9.4 5.3 2.0 3 4.7 5.2 2.9 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Europa II down, San Cristóbal across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,476 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Europa II at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). San Cristóbal away: 0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Europa II, 1.13 for San Cristóbal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SAN 4–0 EUR · EUR 1–2 SAN · EUR 1–0 SAN · SAN 0–1 EUR

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

EUROPA II

LDLDWW0–3 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 6–1

SAN CRISTÓBAL

WLDLWL4–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Badalona	5	+6	9
2	Montañesa	4	+4	9
3	Europa II	5	+4	8
4	Vilanova	4	+2	8
5	Atlètic Lleida	6	−1	8
6	Grama	4	+3	7
7	L'Escala	5	+1	7
8	Pobla Mafumet	5	+1	7
9	Cornellà	4	+2	6
10	L'Hospitalet	4	+2	6
11	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	−5	6
12	Peralada	4	+2	5
13	Martinenc	4	0	5
14	Cerdanyola del Vallès	4	−1	5
15	Mollerussa	4	−1	4
16	San Cristóbal	4	−4	4
17	Vilassar Mar	6	−10	4
18	Tona	5	−5	3