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Cornellà v San Juan Atletico de Montcada

Cornellà

1–3Full time

San Juan Atletico de Montcada

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · SUN 18 OCT · Nou Municipal de Cornella

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

Cornellà 1–3 San Juan Atletico de Montcada CORNELLÀ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cornellà win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.985

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cornellà win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cornellà was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–21
1′KICK-OFF Cornellà v San Juan Atletico de Montcada
36′A goal for San Juan Atletico de Montcada on 34′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–27–55
36′We said Cornellà at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–27–55
36′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 19–27–55
36′⚽ GOAL · 34' Cornellà 0–1 San Juan Atletico de Montcada
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Cornellà win: 54% at kick-off, 19% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' San Juan Atletico de Montcada win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Cornellà win 19%)
45′HALF-TIME Cornellà 0–1 San Juan Atletico de Montcada
46′SECOND HALF Cornellà 0–1 San Juan Atletico de Montcada
47′We said Cornellà at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–59
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Cornellà win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
60′We said Cornellà at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
71′We said Cornellà at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–74
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Cornellà win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
77′Cornellà score on 77′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 19–70–10
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Cornellà 1–1 San Juan Atletico de Montcada
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Cornellà win: 54% at kick-off, 19% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 70% (was San Juan Atletico de Montcada win 10%)
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Cornellà win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
82′San Juan Atletico de Montcada find the net on 82′. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–12–87
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Cornellà 1–2 San Juan Atletico de Montcada
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Cornellà win: 54% at kick-off, 1% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' San Juan Atletico de Montcada win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
83′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 1–11–88
94′A goal for San Juan Atletico de Montcada on 90′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Cornellà 1–3 San Juan Atletico de Montcada
95′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Cornellà 1–3 San Juan Atletico de Montcada
FTCornellà 1–3 San Juan Atletico de Montcada · Cornellà win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cornellà are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cornellà 54%, draw 25%, San Juan Atletico de Montcada 21%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Cornellà v San Juan Atletico de MontcadaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cornellà win54%

Draw25%

San Juan Atletico de Montcada win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 7

VenueNou Municipal de Cornella

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cornellà

San Juan Atletico de Montcada

4Days since last match8

Last match: 14 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Cornellà	6	+1	7
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	−5	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cornellà winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Cornellà a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cornellà v San Juan Atletico de Montcada~~1.72 – 0.97

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 6~~16 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cornellà win	54%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
San Juan Atletico de Montcada win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Cornellà or draw	79%	–	–
Cornellà clean sheet	38%	–	–
San Juan Atletico de Montcada clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.8 6.0 3.3 1 11.1 11.8 5.4 2 10.0 9.5 4.6 3 5.7 5.5 2.6 4 2.5 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cornellà down, San Juan Atletico de Montcada across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,489 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Cornellà at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). San Juan Atletico de Montcada away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Cornellà, 0.97 for San Juan Atletico de Montcada. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 6 Sept

CORNELLÀ

DWDDLD2–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

SAN JUAN ATLETICO DE MONTCADA

LWLWL0–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Hospitalet	7	+4	13
2	Montañesa	7	+4	12
3	Grama	7	+7	11
4	Badalona	6	+6	10
5	Vilanova	6	+2	10
6	Pobla Mafumet	7	+1	10
7	Martinenc	6	+1	9
8	Cerdanyola del Vallès	7	−1	9
9	Tona	7	−3	9
10	Europa II	7	+2	8
11	Peralada	7	+2	8
12	L'Escala	7	−1	8
13	Atlètic Lleida	6	−1	8
14	Mollerussa	7	−1	8
15	San Cristóbal	7	−8	8
16	Cornellà	6	+1	7
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	−5	6
18	Vilassar Mar	6	−10	4