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Cornellà v Peralada
CornellàPeraladaTercera División RFEF - Group 5 · WED 14 OCT · Nou Municipal de Cornella
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Cornellà win at 42%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Cornellà was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–29
- 1′KICK-OFF Cornellà v Peralada
- 40′A goal for Peralada on 40′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–24–65
- 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Cornellà 0–1 Peralada
- 41′We said Cornellà at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–24–65
- 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Cornellà win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
- 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Peralada win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Cornellà win 11%)
- 42′A red card for Peralada on 42′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 10–24–66
- 42′🟥 RED CARD · 42' Peralada
- 44′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 10–24–66
- 45′We said Cornellà at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
- 45′HALF-TIME Cornellà 0–1 Peralada
- 46′SECOND HALF Cornellà 0–1 Peralada
- 55′🟥 RED CARD · 42' Peralada
- 62′62′ and it is 1–1: Cornellà have scored. 1–1 · 26–55–19
- 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Cornellà 1–1 Peralada
- 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Cornellà win: 42% at kick-off, 26% now
- 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Peralada win 19%)
- 63′We said Cornellà at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–56–19
- 65′We said Cornellà at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–18
- 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Cornellà win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
- 72′We said Cornellà at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–15
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Cornellà win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
- 90′We said Cornellà at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
- FTFULL TIME Cornellà 1–1 Peralada
- FTCornellà 1–1 Peralada · Cornellà win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassChelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.
Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.
Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.
Pre-match prediction
Published 14 Oct 18:21 · locked at kick-off
Cornellà win42%Peralada win29%Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 19:00
VenueNou Municipal de Cornella
Match timeline
All events
CornellàMINPeraladaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
Cornellà
Peralada
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions of these teams
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Peralada | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Cornellà | 5 | 1 | 6 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Cornellà a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cornellà win | 42% | 53% | −11 |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | +2 |
| Peralada win | 29% | 20% | +9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 46% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 70% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 26% | −5 |
| Cornellà or draw | 71% | 80% | −9 |
| Cornellà clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
| Peralada clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2025Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5
CORNELLÀ
PERALADA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Badalona | 6 | 6 | 10 |
| 2 |  Pobla Mafumet | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 |  Montañesa | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 |  Vilanova | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 |  Europa II | 6 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 |  Martinenc | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 |  Atlètic Lleida | 6 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 |  L'Hospitalet | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 |  Grama | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 |  L'Escala | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Mollerussa | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  San Cristóbal | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Peralada | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Cornellà | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 15 |  Tona | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 |  San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 |  Cerdanyola del Vallès | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Vilassar Mar | 6 | -10 | 4 |
The competition's standings.