Cerdanyola del Vallès v Montañesa prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Cerdanyola del Vallès 1–0 Montañesa CERDANYOLA DEL VALLÈS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cerdanyola del Vallès win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.616

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cerdanyola del Vallès win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cerdanyola del Vallès was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–30–34
1′KICK-OFF Cerdanyola del Vallès v Montañesa
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Cerdanyola del Vallès win 32%)
44′Cerdanyola del Vallès score on 44′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–21–7
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Cerdanyola del Vallès 1–0 Montañesa
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Cerdanyola del Vallès win: 36% at kick-off, 72% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Cerdanyola del Vallès win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 21%)
45′We published Cerdanyola del Vallès at 36%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–21–7
45′HALF-TIME Cerdanyola del Vallès 1–0 Montañesa
46′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 73–21–7
46′SECOND HALF Cerdanyola del Vallès 1–0 Montañesa
53′We published Cerdanyola del Vallès at 36%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Cerdanyola del Vallès win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
65′We published Cerdanyola del Vallès at 36%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
74′We published Cerdanyola del Vallès at 36%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–1
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Cerdanyola del Vallès win: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
80′We published Cerdanyola del Vallès at 36%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
87′We published Cerdanyola del Vallès at 36%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Cerdanyola del Vallès win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Cerdanyola del Vallès 1–0 Montañesa
FTCerdanyola del Vallès 1–0 Montañesa · Cerdanyola del Vallès win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Cerdanyola del Vallès just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Cerdanyola del Vallès 36%, draw 30%, Montañesa 34%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Cerdanyola del Vallès v MontañesaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cerdanyola del Vallès win36%

Draw30%

Montañesa win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cerdanyola del Vallès

Montañesa

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cerdanyola del vallès winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:58 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Cerdanyola del Vallès a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cerdanyola del Vallès v Montañesa~~1.17 – 1.13

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 12~~15 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cerdanyola del Vallès win

Published at 37%, 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cerdanyola del Vallès win	36%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Montañesa win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Cerdanyola del Vallès or draw	66%	–	–
Cerdanyola del Vallès clean sheet	33%	–	–
Montañesa clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 11.0 10.6 6.4 2.4 1 11.0 13.9 7.4 2.8 2 6.9 7.6 4.3 3 2.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cerdanyola del Vallès down, Montañesa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,489 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cerdanyola del Vallès at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Montañesa away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Cerdanyola del Vallès, 1.13 for Montañesa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MON 1–1 CER · CER 0–1 MON · CER 3–1 MON · MON 0–0 CER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 6 Sept

CERDANYOLA DEL VALLÈS

DLWDLD0–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

MONTAÑESA

WWWLLW3–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Montañesa	6	+5	12
2	Grama	7	+7	11
3	Badalona	6	+6	10
4	L'Hospitalet	6	+3	10
5	Pobla Mafumet	6	+2	10
6	Vilanova	6	+2	10
7	Martinenc	6	+1	9
8	Europa II	6	+3	8
9	Atlètic Lleida	6	−1	8
10	Peralada	6	+2	7
11	Cornellà	6	+1	7
12	L'Escala	6	−1	7
13	Mollerussa	6	−1	7
14	San Cristóbal	6	−8	7
15	Cerdanyola del Vallès	6	−2	6
16	Tona	6	−4	6
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	−5	6
18	Vilassar Mar	6	−10	4