Badalona v Vilanova prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Badalona 0–0 Vilanova BADALONA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Badalona win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.736

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Badalona win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Badalona 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–26
3′Little has changed for our model: Badalona 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–30–26
66′We said Badalona at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–61–16
82′We said Badalona at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–0 · 10–83–7
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Badalona win: 44% at kick-off, 23% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Badalona win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Badalona win: 44% at kick-off, 23% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Badalona win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Badalona win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Badalona win: 44% at kick-off, 23% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Badalona win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Badalona win: 44% at kick-off, 23% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Badalona win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Badalona win: 44% at kick-off, 23% now
90′We said Badalona at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 0–0 · 0–100–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Badalona win: 44% at kick-off, 23% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Badalona win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Badalona win: 44% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Badalona 0–0 Vilanova
FTBadalona 0–0 Vilanova · Badalona win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Badalona win44%

Draw31%

Vilanova win26%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Badalona

Vilanova

8Days since last match14

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Badalona	5	+6	9
4	Vilanova	4	+2	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · badalona winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Badalona a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Badalona win	44%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Vilanova win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Badalona or draw	74%	–	–
Badalona clean sheet	41%	–	–
Vilanova clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 12.9 9.7 4.7 1 13.8 13.8 5.8 2 9.1 8.0 3.6 3 3.8 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Badalona down, Vilanova across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,476 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Badalona at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Vilanova away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Badalona, 0.89 for Vilanova. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAD 3–0 VIL · VIL 2–1 BAD

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

BADALONA

WLLWWW3–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 3–1

VILANOVA

LWDWDW0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Badalona	5	+6	9
2	Montañesa	4	+4	9
3	Europa II	5	+4	8
4	Vilanova	4	+2	8
5	Atlètic Lleida	6	−1	8
6	Grama	4	+3	7
7	L'Escala	5	+1	7
8	Pobla Mafumet	5	+1	7
9	Cornellà	4	+2	6
10	L'Hospitalet	4	+2	6
11	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	−5	6
12	Peralada	4	+2	5
13	Martinenc	4	0	5
14	Cerdanyola del Vallès	4	−1	5
15	Mollerussa	4	−1	4
16	San Cristóbal	4	−4	4
17	Vilassar Mar	6	−10	4
18	Tona	5	−5	3