Badalona v Cornellà prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BadalonaDrawCornellà

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Badalona 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Badalona are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Badalona 47%, draw 28%, Cornellà 25%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Badalona v CornellàBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Badalona win47%

Draw28%

Cornellà win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Badalona

Cornellà

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Badalona	7	+6	11
17	Cornellà	7	−1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · badalona winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Badalona a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Badalona v Cornellà~~1.44 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 7~~5 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Badalona win	47%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Cornellà win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Badalona or draw	75%	–	–
Badalona clean sheet	37%	–	–
Cornellà clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.7 8.0 4.4 1 11.9 13.1 6.2 2.1 2 9.1 8.9 4.4 3 4.4 4.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Badalona down, Cornellà across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Badalona at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Cornellà away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Badalona, 0.99 for Cornellà. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BAD 3–0 COR · COR 4–1 BAD · COR 2–4 BAD · BAD 4–1 COR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 12 Sept

BADALONA

LWWWDD0–1 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–2

CORNELLÀ

WDDLDL3–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Hospitalet	7	+4	13
2	Vilanova	7	+4	13
3	Montañesa	7	+4	12
4	Grama	7	+7	11
5	Badalona	7	+6	11
6	Pobla Mafumet	7	+1	10
7	Atlètic Lleida	7	−1	9
8	Cerdanyola del Vallès	7	−1	9
9	Martinenc	7	−3	9
10	Tona	7	−3	9
11	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	7	−5	9
12	Europa II	7	+2	8
13	Peralada	7	+2	8
14	L'Escala	7	−1	8
15	Mollerussa	7	−1	8
16	San Cristóbal	7	−8	8
17	Cornellà	7	−1	7
18	Vilassar Mar	7	−6	7