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Atlètic Lleida v Badalona

Atlètic Lleida

2–2Full time

Badalona

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Atlètic Lleida 2–2 Badalona ATLÈTIC LLEIDA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlètic Lleida win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.769

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlètic Lleida win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atlètic Lleida 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–29–29
1′KICK-OFF Atlètic Lleida v Badalona
27′We said Atlètic Lleida at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
27′A goal for Badalona on 27′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–24–62
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Atlètic Lleida 0–1 Badalona
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Atlètic Lleida win: 42% at kick-off, 14% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Badalona win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Atlètic Lleida win 14%)
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–63
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Atlètic Lleida win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
45′HALF-TIME Atlètic Lleida 1–1 Badalona
46′We said Atlètic Lleida at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
46′Atlètic Lleida score on 45′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 33–43–24
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Atlètic Lleida 1–1 Badalona
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Atlètic Lleida win: 42% at kick-off, 33% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Badalona win 24%)
46′SECOND HALF Atlètic Lleida 1–1 Badalona
53′We said Atlètic Lleida at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–47–23
54′Badalona find the net on 54′. 1–2. 1–2 · 7–23–70
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Atlètic Lleida 1–2 Badalona
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Atlètic Lleida win: 42% at kick-off, 7% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Badalona win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 23%)
55′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 7–23–71
63′A goal for Atlètic Lleida on 62′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 25–55–19
63′We said Atlètic Lleida at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 2–2 · 25–55–19
63′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 25–55–19
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Atlètic Lleida 2–2 Badalona
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Atlètic Lleida win: 42% at kick-off, 25% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Badalona win 19%)
65′We said Atlètic Lleida at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–57–18
73′We said Atlètic Lleida at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–67–14
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Atlètic Lleida win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
90′We said Atlètic Lleida at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–3
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Atlètic Lleida win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Atlètic Lleida 2–2 Badalona
FTAtlètic Lleida 2–2 Badalona · Atlètic Lleida win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlètic Lleida are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlètic Lleida 42%, draw 29%, Badalona 29%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Atlètic Lleida v BadalonaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atlètic Lleida win42%

Draw29%

Badalona win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlètic Lleida

Badalona

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Badalona	6	+6	10
9	Atlètic Lleida	6	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlètic lleida winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Atlètic Lleida a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlètic Lleida v Badalona~~1.34 – 1.06

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 10~~9 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlètic Lleida win	42%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Badalona win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Atlètic Lleida or draw	71%	–	–
Atlètic Lleida clean sheet	35%	–	–
Badalona clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.1 8.9 5.1 1 11.4 13.5 6.7 2.4 2 8.1 8.4 4.5 3 3.7 3.8 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlètic Lleida down, Badalona across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,489 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Atlètic Lleida at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Badalona away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Atlètic Lleida, 1.06 for Badalona. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 Sept

ATLÈTIC LLEIDA

DLWLDW2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 3–0

BADALONA

LLWWWD1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Montañesa	6	+5	12
2	Grama	7	+7	11
3	Badalona	6	+6	10
4	L'Hospitalet	6	+3	10
5	Pobla Mafumet	6	+2	10
6	Vilanova	6	+2	10
7	Martinenc	6	+1	9
8	Europa II	6	+3	8
9	Atlètic Lleida	6	−1	8
10	Peralada	6	+2	7
11	Cornellà	6	+1	7
12	L'Escala	6	−1	7
13	Mollerussa	6	−1	7
14	San Cristóbal	6	−8	7
15	Cerdanyola del Vallès	6	−2	6
16	Tona	6	−4	6
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	−5	6
18	Vilassar Mar	6	−10	4