Touring v Derio prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Touring 2–0 Derio TOURING WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Touring win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.548

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Touring win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Touring 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
1′KICK-OFF Touring v Derio
13′We said Touring at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
14′Touring find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Touring 1–0 Derio
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Touring win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
17′We said Touring at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Touring win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 71–20–9
45′HALF-TIME Touring 1–0 Derio
46′A goal for Touring on 46′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Touring 2–0 Derio
46′SECOND HALF Touring 2–0 Derio
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Touring win: 40% at kick-off, 94% now
47′We said Touring at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
47′We said Touring at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
49′We said Touring at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
81′We said Touring at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Touring win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Touring 2–0 Derio
FTTouring 2–0 Derio · Touring win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Touring are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Touring 40%, draw 29%, Derio 32%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Touring v DerioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Touring win40%

Draw29%

Derio win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Touring

Derio

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Derio	6	+5	12
9	Touring	6	+1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · touring winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Touring a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Touring v Derio~~1.23 – 1.07

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 12~~9 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Touring win	40%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Derio win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Touring or draw	68%	–	–
Touring clean sheet	35%	–	–
Derio clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.5 10.6 5.8 2.1 1 12.1 13.1 6.9 2.5 2 7.6 7.9 4.2 3 3.1 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Touring down, Derio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,596 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Touring at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Derio away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Touring, 1.07 for Derio. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DER 2–1 TOU · TOU 5–2 DER · DER 0–2 TOU · TOU 0–1 DER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept

TOURING

LDWWDL0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

DERIO

DDWWWD0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	7	+4	16
2	Leioa	6	+10	12
3	Derio	6	+5	12
4	Aretxabaleta	6	+3	11
5	Real Sociedad III	7	+1	11
6	Deportivo Alavés III	6	+7	10
7	Pasaia KE	6	−1	10
8	San Ignacio	6	+2	8
9	Touring	6	+1	8
10	Sodupe	6	−4	8
11	Durango	6	0	7
12	Beasain	6	−1	7
13	Lagun Onak	6	−3	7
14	Erandio	6	−2	6
15	Santurtzi	6	−4	6
16	Eibar III	6	−1	5
17	R. Union B	6	−5	5
18	Amurrio Club	6	−12	1