Sodupe v Erandio prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Sodupe 1–0 Erandio SODUPE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sodupe win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.487

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sodupe are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sodupe 43%, draw 27%, Erandio 30%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Sodupe v ErandioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sodupe win43%

Draw27%

Erandio win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sodupe

Erandio

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Sodupe	6	−4	8
14	Erandio	6	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sodupe winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Sodupe a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sodupe v Erandio~~1.37 – 1.09

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 6~~10 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sodupe win	43%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Erandio win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Sodupe or draw	70%	–	–
Sodupe clean sheet	34%	–	–
Erandio clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 9.1 9.2 5.1 1 11.5 12.6 6.8 2.5 2 8.0 8.4 4.6 3 3.7 3.9 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sodupe down, Erandio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,596 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Sodupe at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Erandio away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Sodupe, 1.09 for Erandio. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept

SODUPE

WDDLLW2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–5 · 1–0

ERANDIO

WLLWLL2–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	7	+4	16
2	Leioa	6	+10	12
3	Derio	6	+5	12
4	Aretxabaleta	6	+3	11
5	Real Sociedad III	7	+1	11
6	Deportivo Alavés III	6	+7	10
7	Pasaia KE	6	−1	10
8	San Ignacio	6	+2	8
9	Touring	6	+1	8
10	Sodupe	6	−4	8
11	Durango	6	0	7
12	Beasain	6	−1	7
13	Lagun Onak	6	−3	7
14	Erandio	6	−2	6
15	Santurtzi	6	−4	6
16	Eibar III	6	−1	5
17	R. Union B	6	−5	5
18	Amurrio Club	6	−12	1