Santurtzi v Amurrio Club prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SanturtziDrawAmurrio Club

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Santurtzi 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Santurtzi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santurtzi 52%, draw 27%, Amurrio Club 21%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Santurtzi v Amurrio ClubBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Santurtzi win52%

Draw27%

Amurrio Club win21%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:15

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santurtzi

Amurrio Club

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Santurtzi	7	−5	6
18	Amurrio Club	7	−13	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santurtzi winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Santurtzi a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santurtzi v Amurrio Club~~1.44 – 0.80

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 6 v 1~~16 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santurtzi win	52%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Amurrio Club win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Santurtzi or draw	79%	–	–
Santurtzi clean sheet	46%	–	–
Amurrio Club clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.3%

0123450 11.4 8.6 3.5 1 15.3 12.0 4.8 2 10.9 8.4 3.4 3 5.3 4.1 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santurtzi down, Amurrio Club across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,611 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.8% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Santurtzi at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Amurrio Club away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Santurtzi, 0.80 for Amurrio Club. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept

SANTURTZI

WLLLWL2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

AMURRIO CLUB

LDLLLL0–3 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	7	+4	16
2	Aretxabaleta	7	+5	14
3	Leioa	7	+10	13
4	Derio	7	+3	12
5	Deportivo Alavés III	7	+7	11
6	San Ignacio	7	+3	11
7	Touring	7	+3	11
8	Real Sociedad III	7	+1	11
9	Sodupe	7	−3	11
10	Beasain	7	+2	10
11	Durango	7	+1	10
12	Pasaia KE	7	−4	10
13	Eibar III	7	0	8
14	Lagun Onak	7	−4	7
15	Erandio	7	−3	6
16	Santurtzi	7	−5	6
17	R. Union B	7	−7	5
18	Amurrio Club	7	−13	1