Real Sociedad III v Deportivo Alavés III prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Real Sociedad IIIDrawDeportivo Alavés III

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Real Sociedad III 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Sociedad III are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Sociedad III 40%, draw 25%, Deportivo Alavés III 35%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Real Sociedad III v Deportivo Alavés IIIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Real Sociedad III win40%

Draw25%

Deportivo Alavés III win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:15

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Sociedad III

Deportivo Alavés III

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Deportivo Alavés III	7	+7	11
8	Real Sociedad III	7	+1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real sociedad iii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Real Sociedad III a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Sociedad III v Deportivo Alavés III~~1.50 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 11~~8 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Sociedad III win	40%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Deportivo Alavés III win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Real Sociedad III or draw	65%	–	–
Real Sociedad III clean sheet	26%	–	–
Deportivo Alavés III clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.0 7.7 5.4 2.5 1 8.4 11.5 7.8 3.6 2 6.4 8.4 5.7 2.7 3 3.2 4.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Sociedad III down, Deportivo Alavés III across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,605 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.6% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Sociedad III at home: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Alavés III away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Real Sociedad III, 1.39 for Deportivo Alavés III. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DEP 3–0 REA · REA 1–0 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept

REAL SOCIEDAD III

WLDWWL2–0 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–2

DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS III

WLLWWD3–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 5–1 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	7	+4	16
2	Aretxabaleta	7	+5	14
3	Leioa	7	+10	13
4	Derio	7	+3	12
5	Deportivo Alavés III	7	+7	11
6	San Ignacio	7	+3	11
7	Touring	7	+3	11
8	Real Sociedad III	7	+1	11
9	Sodupe	7	−3	11
10	Beasain	7	+2	10
11	Durango	7	+1	10
12	Pasaia KE	7	−4	10
13	Eibar III	7	0	8
14	Lagun Onak	7	−4	7
15	Erandio	7	−3	6
16	Santurtzi	7	−5	6
17	R. Union B	7	−7	5
18	Amurrio Club	7	−13	1