R. Union B v Aretxabaleta prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

R. Union B 0–2 Aretxabaleta R. UNION B WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said R. Union B win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.617

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with R. Union B just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: R. Union B 40%, draw 24%, Aretxabaleta 37%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on R. Union B v AretxabaletaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

R. Union B win40%

Draw24%

Aretxabaleta win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

R. Union B

Aretxabaleta

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Aretxabaleta	6	+3	11
17	R. Union B	6	−5	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · r. union b winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make R. Union B a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · R. Union B v Aretxabaleta~~1.62 – 1.54

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 11~~17 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
R. Union B win	40%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Aretxabaleta win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
R. Union B or draw	63%	–	–
R. Union B clean sheet	22%	–	–
Aretxabaleta clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.7 6.6 5.1 2.6 1 6.9 10.5 7.9 4.1 2 5.6 8.3 6.3 3.2 3 3.1 4.5 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+R. Union B down, Aretxabaleta across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,602 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

R. Union B at home: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 3). Aretxabaleta away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for R. Union B, 1.54 for Aretxabaleta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept

R. UNION B

LWDDLL0–2 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 3–3 · 0–3 · 0–1

ARETXABALETA

WDDLWW1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	7	+4	16
2	Leioa	7	+10	13
3	Derio	7	+3	12
4	Deportivo Alavés III	7	+7	11
5	Touring	7	+3	11
6	Aretxabaleta	6	+3	11
7	Real Sociedad III	7	+1	11
8	Sodupe	7	−3	11
9	Beasain	7	+2	10
10	Durango	7	+1	10
11	Pasaia KE	7	−4	10
12	San Ignacio	6	+2	8
13	Lagun Onak	7	−4	7
14	Erandio	7	−3	6
15	Santurtzi	6	−4	6
16	Eibar III	6	−1	5
17	R. Union B	6	−5	5
18	Amurrio Club	6	−12	1