Pasaia KE v Beasain prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Pasaia KE 1–4 Beasain BEASAIN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Beasain win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.411

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Beasain win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Beasain was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 26–26–48
1′KICK-OFF Pasaia KE v Beasain
4′Beasain find the net on 4′. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–16–74
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Pasaia KE 0–1 Beasain
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Beasain win: 48% at kick-off, 74% now
5′We published Beasain at 48%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 10–16–74
7′A goal for Pasaia KE on 7′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–27–47
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Pasaia KE 1–1 Beasain
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Beasain win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
38′Beasain score on 38′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 6–18–76
38′We published Beasain at 48%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–2 · 6–18–76
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Pasaia KE 1–2 Beasain
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Beasain win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
39′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 6–18–76
40′GOAL DISALLOWED · 40' Beasain
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Beasain win: 48% at kick-off, 39% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Beasain win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Pasaia KE 1–2 Beasain
46′Beasain score on 45′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 5–17–77
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Pasaia KE 1–2 Beasain
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Beasain win: 48% at kick-off, 77% now
46′SECOND HALF Pasaia KE 1–2 Beasain
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Beasain win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
56′We published Beasain at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 4–17–80
70′We published Beasain at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
73′Beasain find the net on 72′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
73′We published Beasain at 48%. Our model now makes it 99%. 1–3 · 0–1–99
73′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Pasaia KE 1–3 Beasain
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Beasain win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
81′We published Beasain at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
94′A goal for Beasain on 90′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Pasaia KE 1–4 Beasain
95′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Pasaia KE 1–4 Beasain
FTPasaia KE 1–4 Beasain · Beasain win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Beasain are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pasaia KE 26%, draw 26%, Beasain 48%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Pasaia KE v BeasainBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pasaia KE win26%

Draw26%

Beasain win48%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pasaia KE

Beasain

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Pasaia KE	6	−1	10
12	Beasain	6	−1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · beasain winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Beasain a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pasaia KE v Beasain~~1.03 – 1.51

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 7~~7 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Beasain win

Published at 47%, 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pasaia KE win	26%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Beasain win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Pasaia KE or draw	52%	–	–
Pasaia KE clean sheet	23%	–	–
Beasain clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 8.5 11.8 8.8 4.5 1 8.2 12.1 8.8 4.4 2 4.4 6.2 4.5 2.3 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pasaia KE down, Beasain across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,596 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pasaia KE at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Beasain away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Pasaia KE, 1.51 for Beasain. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BEA 4–0 PAS · PAS 4–1 BEA · BEA 1–0 PAS · PAS 0–1 BEA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept

PASAIA KE

LDWWWL0–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–4

BEASAIN

WDLLLW2–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	7	+4	16
2	Leioa	6	+10	12
3	Derio	6	+5	12
4	Aretxabaleta	6	+3	11
5	Real Sociedad III	7	+1	11
6	Deportivo Alavés III	6	+7	10
7	Pasaia KE	6	−1	10
8	San Ignacio	6	+2	8
9	Touring	6	+1	8
10	Sodupe	6	−4	8
11	Durango	6	0	7
12	Beasain	6	−1	7
13	Lagun Onak	6	−3	7
14	Erandio	6	−2	6
15	Santurtzi	6	−4	6
16	Eibar III	6	−1	5
17	R. Union B	6	−5	5
18	Amurrio Club	6	−12	1