Leioa v Sodupe prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Leioa 3–0 Sodupe LEIOA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leioa win~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.187

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leioa win at 65%.
1′Much as we predicted: Leioa was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–21–15
1′KICK-OFF Leioa v Sodupe
26′Leioa score on 25′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–11–4
26′We published Leioa at 65%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–11–4
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Leioa 1–0 Sodupe
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Leioa win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 85–12–3
45′HALF-TIME Leioa 1–0 Sodupe
51′SECOND HALF Leioa 1–0 Sodupe
69′Leioa find the net on 69′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Leioa 2–0 Sodupe
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Leioa win: 65% at kick-off, 99% now
70′We published Leioa at 65%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
77′We published Leioa at 65%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′A goal for Leioa on 84′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Leioa 3–0 Sodupe
85′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Leioa 3–0 Sodupe
FTLeioa 3–0 Sodupe · Leioa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Leioa are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leioa 65%, draw 21%, Sodupe 15%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Leioa v SodupeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Leioa win65%

Draw21%

Sodupe win15%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leioa

Sodupe

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Leioa	7	+10	13
9	Sodupe	7	−3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leioa winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Leioa a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leioa v Sodupe~~2.02 – 0.81

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~3 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leioa win	65%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Sodupe win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Leioa or draw	85%	–	–
Leioa clean sheet	45%	–	–
Sodupe clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.9%

0123450 6.3 4.9 2.0 1 11.9 9.6 3.9 2 11.8 9.4 3.8 3 7.9 6.3 2.5 4 4.1 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leioa down, Sodupe across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,605 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.6% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Leioa at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sodupe away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for Leioa, 0.81 for Sodupe. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept

LEIOA

DDWWWD1–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 4–0 · 2–2

SODUPE

DDLLWW1–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	7	+4	16
2	Aretxabaleta	7	+5	14
3	Leioa	7	+10	13
4	Derio	7	+3	12
5	Deportivo Alavés III	7	+7	11
6	San Ignacio	7	+3	11
7	Touring	7	+3	11
8	Real Sociedad III	7	+1	11
9	Sodupe	7	−3	11
10	Beasain	7	+2	10
11	Durango	7	+1	10
12	Pasaia KE	7	−4	10
13	Eibar III	7	0	8
14	Lagun Onak	7	−4	7
15	Erandio	7	−3	6
16	Santurtzi	7	−5	6
17	R. Union B	7	−7	5
18	Amurrio Club	7	−13	1