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Leioa v Aurrerá Vitoria

Leioa

4–0Full time

Aurrerá Vitoria

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Leioa 4–0 Aurrerá Vitoria LEIOA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leioa win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.298

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leioa win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Leioa 55% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–24–21
1′KICK-OFF Leioa v Aurrerá Vitoria
5′Little has changed for our model: Leioa 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–21
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Leioa win: 55% at kick-off, 44% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Leioa win: 55% at kick-off, 49% now
45′We said Leioa at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–38–19
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Leioa win: 55% at kick-off, 49% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Leioa win: 55% at kick-off, 44% now
45′HALF-TIME Leioa 0–0 Aurrerá Vitoria
46′SECOND HALF Leioa 0–0 Aurrerá Vitoria
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Leioa win: 55% at kick-off, 43% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Leioa win: 55% at kick-off, 43% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Leioa win: 55% at kick-off, 43% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Leioa win: 55% at kick-off, 43% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Leioa win: 55% at kick-off, 43% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Leioa win: 55% at kick-off, 43% now
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Leioa 1–0 Aurrerá Vitoria
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Leioa 2–0 Aurrerá Vitoria
83′⚽ GOAL · 57' Leioa 2–0 Aurrerá Vitoria
83′⚽ GOAL · 77' Leioa 2–0 Aurrerá Vitoria
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Leioa 3–0 Aurrerá Vitoria
86′⚽ GOAL · 57' Leioa 3–0 Aurrerá Vitoria
86′⚽ GOAL · 77' Leioa 3–0 Aurrerá Vitoria
86′⚽ GOAL · 84' Leioa 3–0 Aurrerá Vitoria
90′⚽ GOAL · 96' Leioa 4–0 Aurrerá Vitoria
FTFULL TIME Leioa 4–0 Aurrerá Vitoria
FTLeioa 4–0 Aurrerá Vitoria · Leioa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Leioa win55%

Draw24%

Aurrerá Vitoria win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leioa winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Leioa a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leioa win	55%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Aurrerá Vitoria win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Leioa or draw	79%	–	–
Leioa clean sheet	38%	–	–
Aurrerá Vitoria clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.4%

0123450 7.1 6.3 3.1 1 11.4 11.2 5.3 2 10.0 9.5 4.6 3 5.9 5.6 2.7 4 2.7 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leioa down, Aurrerá Vitoria across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,587 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.9% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leioa at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Aurrerá Vitoria away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Leioa, 0.97 for Aurrerá Vitoria. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~AUR 0–1 LEI · LEI 3–0 AUR · LEI 3–0 AUR · AUR 1–2 LEI

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

LEIOA

WDDDWW1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 5–0

AURRERÁ VITORIA

WWDWWW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	5	+6	13
2	Derio	5	+5	11
3	Pasaia KE	5	+1	10
4	Leioa	5	+6	9
5	Real Sociedad III	5	+2	8
6	Touring	5	+2	8
7	Aretxabaleta	5	+1	8
8	Deportivo Alavés III	5	+5	7
9	Lagun Onak	5	−1	7
10	Durango	5	0	6
11	Erandio	5	0	6
12	San Ignacio	5	+1	5
13	Eibar III	5	0	5
14	R. Union B	5	−4	5
15	Sodupe	5	−5	5
16	Beasain	5	−3	4
17	Santurtzi	5	−5	3
18	Amurrio Club	5	−11	1