Lagun Onak v Durango prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Lagun Onak 1–2 Durango LAGUN ONAK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lagun Onak win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.837

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lagun Onak are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lagun Onak 47%, draw 27%, Durango 26%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Lagun Onak v DurangoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lagun Onak win47%

Draw27%

Durango win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lagun Onak

Durango

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Durango	6	0	7
13	Lagun Onak	6	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lagun onak winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Lagun Onak a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lagun Onak v Durango~~1.44 – 1.00

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~13 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lagun Onak win	47%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Durango win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Lagun Onak or draw	74%	–	–
Lagun Onak clean sheet	37%	–	–
Durango clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 9.2 8.6 4.4 1 12.4 12.5 6.2 2.1 2 9.0 8.8 4.4 3 4.4 4.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lagun Onak down, Durango across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,596 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lagun Onak at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Durango away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Lagun Onak, 1.00 for Durango. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LAG 0–1 DUR · DUR 1–0 LAG · LAG 1–1 DUR · DUR 1–2 LAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept

LAGUN ONAK

DLWWLL1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–4

DURANGO

DLDWDD3–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	7	+4	16
2	Leioa	6	+10	12
3	Derio	6	+5	12
4	Aretxabaleta	6	+3	11
5	Real Sociedad III	7	+1	11
6	Deportivo Alavés III	6	+7	10
7	Pasaia KE	6	−1	10
8	San Ignacio	6	+2	8
9	Touring	6	+1	8
10	Sodupe	6	−4	8
11	Durango	6	0	7
12	Beasain	6	−1	7
13	Lagun Onak	6	−3	7
14	Erandio	6	−2	6
15	Santurtzi	6	−4	6
16	Eibar III	6	−1	5
17	R. Union B	6	−5	5
18	Amurrio Club	6	−12	1