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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 › Erandio v Touring

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Erandio v Touring

Erandio
0–1Full time
Touring

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45
Erandio 0–1 Touring TOURING WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Touring win38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.574

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Touring win at 38%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Touring 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 34–28–38
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Erandio v Touring
  4. 2′A goal for Touring on 2′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–20–66
  5. 2′We said Touring at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 0–1 · 14–20–66
  6. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Erandio 0–1 Touring
  7. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Touring win: 38% at kick-off, 66% now
  8. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Touring win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
  9. 29′We said Touring at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–21–70
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 9–21–70
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Erandio 0–1 Touring
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Erandio 0–1 Touring
  13. 52′We said Touring at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
  14. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Touring win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
  15. 65′We said Touring at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  16. 74′We said Touring at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
  17. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Touring win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
  18. 80′We said Touring at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
  19. 87′We said Touring at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  20. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Touring win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
  21. FTFULL TIME Erandio 0–1 Touring
  22. FTErandio 0–1 Touring · Touring win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Touring just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Erandio 34%, draw 28%, Touring 38%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Erandio v TouringBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Erandio win34%
Draw28%
Touring win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Erandio

Touring

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Touring7+311
15Erandio7−36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · touring winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
38% The market–
Us38%

We make Touring a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Erandio v Touring1.12 – 1.22
Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 12 SeptW1 D0 L5 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 6 v 1115 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Erandio win34%––
Draw28%––
Touring win38%––
Over 2.5 goals41%––
Both teams to score47%––
Over 1.5 goals68%––
Over 3.5 goals21%––
Erandio or draw62%––
Erandio clean sheet30%––
Touring clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%
0123450 10.0 11.6 7.1 3.0 1 10.8 12.9 7.7 3.2 2 6.1 7.2 4.3 3 2.4 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Erandio down, Touring across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept

ERANDIO

LLWLLL0–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1

TOURING

DWWDLW1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Aurrerá Vitoria7+416
2Aretxabaleta7+514
3Leioa7+1013
4Derio7+312
5Deportivo Alavés III7+711
6San Ignacio7+311
7Touring7+311
8Real Sociedad III7+111
9Sodupe7−311
10Beasain7+210
11Durango7+110
12Pasaia KE7−410
13Eibar III708
14Lagun Onak7−47
15Erandio7−36
16Santurtzi7−56
17R. Union B7−75
18Amurrio Club7−131

The competition's standings before kick-off.