Durango v Pasaia KE prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Durango 2–0 Pasaia KE DURANGO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Durango win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.259

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Durango win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Durango was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–24–18
1′KICK-OFF Durango v Pasaia KE
19′A goal for Durango on 19′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Durango 2–0 Pasaia KE
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Durango win: 59% at kick-off, 95% now
20′We published Durango at 59%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Durango 2–0 Pasaia KE
46′SECOND HALF Durango 2–0 Pasaia KE
57′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Durango win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
78′We published Durango at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Durango 2–0 Pasaia KE
FTDurango 2–0 Pasaia KE · Durango win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Durango are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Durango 59%, draw 24%, Pasaia KE 18%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Durango v Pasaia KEBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Durango win59%

Draw24%

Pasaia KE win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Durango

Pasaia KE

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Durango	7	+1	10
12	Pasaia KE	7	−4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · durango winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Durango a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Durango v Pasaia KE~~1.74 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 10~~11 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Durango win	59%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Pasaia KE win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Durango or draw	82%	–	–
Durango clean sheet	44%	–	–
Pasaia KE clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 8.1 6.4 2.7 1 13.3 11.0 4.5 2 11.4 9.3 3.9 3 6.7 5.4 2.2 4 3.0 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Durango down, Pasaia KE across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,605 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.6% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Durango at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Pasaia KE away: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Durango, 0.83 for Pasaia KE. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DUR 0–0 PAS · PAS 0–2 DUR · DUR 0–0 PAS · PAS 3–2 DUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept

DURANGO

LDWDDW1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

PASAIA KE

DWWWLL1–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	7	+4	16
2	Aretxabaleta	7	+5	14
3	Leioa	7	+10	13
4	Derio	7	+3	12
5	Deportivo Alavés III	7	+7	11
6	San Ignacio	7	+3	11
7	Touring	7	+3	11
8	Real Sociedad III	7	+1	11
9	Sodupe	7	−3	11
10	Beasain	7	+2	10
11	Durango	7	+1	10
12	Pasaia KE	7	−4	10
13	Eibar III	7	0	8
14	Lagun Onak	7	−4	7
15	Erandio	7	−3	6
16	Santurtzi	7	−5	6
17	R. Union B	7	−7	5
18	Amurrio Club	7	−13	1