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Durango v Derio
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · SAT 10 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Durango win at 38%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Durango 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
- 1′KICK-OFF Durango v Derio
- 19′🟥 RED CARD · 18' Derio
- 21′Derio are down to ten from 18′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 36–33–31
- 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Durango 0–1 Derio
- 45′33′ and it is 0–1: Derio have scored. 0–1 · 8–22–70
- 45′HALF-TIME Durango 0–1 Derio
- 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Durango win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
- 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Derio win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Durango win 8%)
- 46′SECOND HALF Durango 0–1 Derio
- 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Durango 1–1 Derio
- 90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Durango
- FTFULL TIME Durango 1–1 Derio
- FTDurango 1–1 Derio · Durango win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
Match updates
Recorded match details below.
Timeline
Events will appear when the match starts.
Pre-match prediction
Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15
Match information
SAT 10 OCT · 11:00
The game so far
Recorded statisticsMatch statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Players on the pitch
Recorded line-upsLine-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Durango a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Durango win | 38% | – | – |
| Draw | 29% | – | – |
| Derio win | 33% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 46% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | – | – |
| Durango or draw | 67% | – | – |
| Durango clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
| Derio clean sheet | 31% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
6 meetings since 2023Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
DURANGO
DERIO
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Aurrerá Vitoria | 5 | +6 | 13 |
| 2 | Derio | 5 | +5 | 11 |
| 3 |  Pasaia KE | 5 | +1 | 10 |
| 4 |  Leioa | 5 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad III | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 6 |  Touring | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 7 |  Aretxabaleta | 5 | +1 | 8 |
| 8 |  Deportivo Alavés III | 5 | +5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Lagun Onak | 5 | −1 | 7 |
| 10 | Durango | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 |  Erandio | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 |  San Ignacio | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| 13 |  Eibar III | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 14 |  R. Union B | 5 | −4 | 5 |
| 15 |  Sodupe | 5 | −5 | 5 |
| 16 |  Beasain | 5 | −3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Santurtzi | 5 | −5 | 3 |
| 18 |  Amurrio Club | 5 | −11 | 1 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.